Kalshi just raised at an 83.5x fee multiple. If you apply even a fraction of that to Polymarket’s projected fees, the platform’s reported $20 billion valuation target starts to look like a discount.A new valuation report from Messari researcher 0xWeiler builds the case from the ground up. Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation on March 19, led by Coatue Management. With $263.5 million in 2025 fees, that establishes the 83.5x benchmark.0xWeiler’s base case for Polymarket uses a 30x multiple on 2 ...

The only way I'll make real money from Polymarket is the $POLY token.I don't have an edge in sports betting or political events (no insider info).I'm not confident enough to size up against rates traders or other economic data.Arbitraging between Kalshi & Polymarket seems too late now to compete with MMs.Hedging my crypto longs is the only trade that actually makes sense for me.Thus airdrop with the highest multiplier for early adoptoooors is my biggest hope.And, if that happens, trading the token itself is ...

RT 0xWeiler (@0xWeiler)Predict_TO invited me to break down Polymarket's growth strategyKey Insight:- Assuming a conservative $10B FDV with 10% allocation, @Polymarket has $1B to deploy for the $POLY token.- The limiting factor isn't budget, it's WHERE to allocate.- Wallets with $100-$5K volume offer the highest behavioral ROI ...

Polymarket parent Blockratize Inc. has filed U.S. trademark applications for “POLY” and “$POLY,” covering downloadable financial and crypto trading software, digital token services, and electronic trading platform offerings. The filings, submitted on an intent-to-use basis and currently pending, add a formal legal signal to Polymarket’s previously confirmed plans to launch a native POLY token and conduct an airdrop, though no launch timeline has been disclosed.https://t.co/Kc8UyeG2rz ...

Live talking markets, crypto crash and rally, POLY token, Ace Trader + a lot moreJump inhttps://t.co/OXEs209Zmv ...

Polymarket has filed trademark applications for "POLY" and "$POLY" with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, signaling concrete steps toward launching its long-anticipated native token, even as the prediction market faces mounting regulatory challenges. The filings, submitted Thursday by Polymarket's parent company Blockratize Inc., cover trademark protection for “cryptocurrency services, financial trading platforms, and blockchain-based payment systems.” Both applications describe services for "provid ...

Core Insights - Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market platform, gained significant traction in 2024 due to the U.S. presidential elections, with users actively betting on the outcome of Trump's candidacy [2][8] - The platform's total value locked (TVL) peaked at over $500 million on November 6, 2024, before dropping below $100 million, but has since rebounded to approximately $230 million by November 5, 2025, indicating over 100% growth since the summer of 2025 [3][8] - The anticipated Polymarket airdrop is in development, with the token ticker confirmed as POLY, although no official launch date or criteria have been established yet [5][8] Platform Developments - Polymarket is currently unavailable to U.S. users, despite the platform's focus on U.S. political markets, with preparations for a U.S. launch underway, including a waitlist for interested users [6][7][8] - The eligibility for the upcoming Polymarket airdrop is expected to be based on user activity and engagement on the platform, with no KYC requirements, only a crypto wallet needed for registration [7][8] Market Context - The prediction market sector, represented by Polymarket, is still emerging but is developing rapidly, drawing comparisons to the early days of meme coins [4][8] - Analysts have raised concerns regarding low liquidity and the potential for insider influence, as large bets can significantly distort market odds [8]

I was really tempted to buy $UMA as Polymarket success should've pumped it.Yet $UMA trading below bear market lows.Why?Polymarket trades $1B USD monthly bets but less than 0.3% of outcomes go into disputes.UMA only matters when a dispute happens.So while Polymarket grows fast, UMA’s demand stays low. The success didn't translate into token value.Ironically, the lower the $UMA MC the higher the governance risk.With a $100M MC, it takes only a few % of token supply to effect a vote.There were already (reporte ...

Here is Polymarket CMO Matthew Modabber talking through the POLY token+ how (and when) they're thinking about launch https://t.co/4BUu21akWa ...

Core Insights - Polymarket has confirmed the launch of a native POLY token and an airdrop, marking its first official acknowledgment of tokenization amid rising trading levels and institutional interest following a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange [1][5][7] Company Developments - The Chief Marketing Officer, Matthew Modabber, stated that the company aims to ensure the token has true utility and longevity, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing the relaunch of its US app, which has recently received regulatory clearance [2][3][4] - Speculation regarding the airdrop has increased, with traders suggesting that allocations may depend on trading history, as Polymarket and Kalshi recorded significant trading volumes of $2.9 billion and $1.4 billion respectively last month [5][6] Community Engagement - Polymarket currently has 1.35 million active traders, with only 0.5% of wallets earning over $1,000 and 1.7% trading more than $50,000, indicating that a potential POLY airdrop could benefit hundreds of thousands of users if rewards are directed towards active participants [6] - Comparisons have been made to previous significant airdrops, such as Pi Network's $12.6 billion and Uniswap's $6.4 billion giveaways, suggesting that Polymarket's airdrop could become one of the largest in the crypto space [6] Industry Trends - The growth of Polymarket reflects a broader trend on Wall Street, where major institutions are increasingly viewing prediction markets as a form of risk-pricing infrastructure rather than mere gambling, as evidenced by ICE's investment [7]