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Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) Earnings Call Presentation
2025-08-19 22:00
Project Overview - The Nolans Project has a mine life of over 38 years and is expected to produce 4,440 tonnes per annum (tpa) of NdPr oxide[17] - The project's capital expenditure (Capex) is estimated at US$1226 million, including contingency, with a post-tax NPV8 of US$1729 million (base) and US$2549 million (incentive)[18] - The project is strategically located with access to critical infrastructure and is considered a nation-building initiative with potential for a Phase 2 Processing Hub[20] Market and Demand - By 2035, the market will require an additional supply of over 60kt of NdPr oxide[37] - Demand is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7% from 2024 to 2035, driven by the transition to a low-carbon economy[37] - Robotics is an emerging thematic, with a CAGR of approximately 22% between 2024 and 2035, forecasting a US$5 trillion market by 2050[37] Funding and Offtake - Conditional credit approvals have been received for over US$1 billion in debt finance for the Nolans Project[56] - The company has secured binding offtake agreements for 2,320 tpa of NdPr Oxide, representing 66% of its binding offtake target, with Hyundai & Kia (1,500 tpa), Siemens Gamesa RE (520 tpa), and Traxys Europe S A (300 tpa)[53] - The company is targeting 80% of planned production as binding offtake, with total planned production being 4,440 tpa of NdPr oxide[54] Financials and Economics - The project economics are robust, with a post-tax NPV8 of US$1729 million and an IRR after tax of 172% under the base case[71] - Under an incentive pricing scenario, the NPV8 increases to US$2549 million and the IRR to 206%[71] - The operating cost is projected to be US$437 per kg of NdPr, falling to below US$30 per kg net of phosphoric acid by-product credits[71]