Company Overview - Pool Corp is a specialized retailer that sells supplies for building, updating, and maintaining pools, which are considered recreational assets [2] - The business model relies on ongoing maintenance spending once a pool is built, creating a consistent demand for maintenance supplies [2][4] Industry Dynamics - The pool supply industry has an inherent growth bias due to the continuous demand for supplies as new pools are constructed [4][5] - Economic conditions significantly impact the construction and upgrade of pools; during good times, more pools are built, while recessions lead to reduced construction activity [4][10] Investment Performance - Pool Corp's stock has lost approximately 50% of its value since reaching an all-time high in 2021, primarily due to a post-pandemic slowdown in pool construction [7] - The stock's current dividend yield of 1.7% is near its highest levels in the past decade, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [8] Valuation Metrics - Traditional valuation metrics such as price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios are below their five-year averages, suggesting an attractive price point [9] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is slightly above its five-year average at around 28x, indicating a premium valuation for a growth-oriented business [9][10] Investment Considerations - Pool Corp may be suitable for growth investors and those seeking growth with income, but it may not appeal to dividend or value investors due to its current metrics [10] - The stock's performance is highly sensitive to economic growth, requiring investors to have a strong stomach for potential downturns [10][12] Long-term Outlook - The recent decline in Pool Corp's stock could present a significant buying opportunity, similar to past market downturns [12] - Following Warren Buffett's investment philosophy of buying good companies at attractive prices and holding them long-term may be beneficial for investors in Pool Corp [13]

Core Viewpoint - Pool Corp. is facing a challenging economic environment, with its stock down approximately 12% year to date, but this may present a buying opportunity for investors as it is a high-quality industry leader available at a discount [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Pool Corp. is the world's largest pool supplies distributor, operating 448 sales centers across North America, Europe, and Australia, serving over 125,000 customers [5]. - The company owns the Pinch A Penny retail franchise, which has around 300 locations [5]. - Pool Corp.'s revenue is significantly driven by recurring sales, with 86% coming from consistent upkeep products for installed pools [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Over the past five years, Pool Corp. has achieved a 14% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in total revenue, reaching $5.3 billion in 2024 [8]. - Despite a slowdown in new pool construction, management remains optimistic about growth from its expanding private-label business and the Pool360 digital platform [9][10]. - For 2025, Pool Corp. anticipates net sales to be "flat to slightly higher" year over year, with an earnings-per-share (EPS) estimate of $11.08 to $11.58, indicating a 3% increase at the midpoint compared to 2024 [10]. Group 3: Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns - Pool Corp. has a strong free cash flow generation, allowing for a generous capital allocation strategy, including a recent 4% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.25 per share, yielding about 1.3% [11]. - The company has also increased its share repurchase authorization to $600 million, demonstrating its commitment to shareholders [11]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Position - Pool Corp.'s current forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 27, which is a discount compared to its historical average P/E of around 30 over the past decade, suggesting the stock may be undervalued [12]. - A potential recovery in the housing market and pool construction, aided by subdued inflation and lower interest rates, could enhance company performance [14].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first quarter of negative growth since Q1 2022 and missing analysts' expectations of 0.4% growth [3] - Consumer confidence fell by 7.9 points to 86 in April, reaching a five-year low, indicating a lack of investor confidence in the economy [6] Trade and Tariffs - Concerns are rising that President Trump's tariffs could negatively impact economic health, despite a temporary 90-day pause on tariffs that led to a 41.3% increase in imports for the quarter, while exports only grew by 1.8% [4][6] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending has slowed as individuals are saving more in anticipation of tougher economic conditions, alongside a significant decline in federal expenditures contributing to sluggish GDP figures [5] Dividend-Paying Stocks - In light of economic uncertainty, investing in dividend-paying stocks is recommended as they tend to provide steady income and stability [2][7] - Atkore Inc. (ATKR) announced a dividend of $0.33 per share with a dividend yield of 2%, having increased its dividend once in the past five years with a payout ratio of 12% [9][8] - Enact Holdings, Inc. (ACT) declared a dividend of $0.21 per share and has a dividend yield of 2.07%, having increased its dividend six times in the past five years with a payout ratio of 16% [11][10] - Pool Corporation (POOL) announced a dividend of $1.25 per share with a dividend yield of 1.64%, having increased its dividend six times in the past five years and a payout ratio of 46% [13][12] - American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) declared a dividend of $0.83 per share with a dividend yield of 2.08%, having increased its dividend six times in the past five years and a payout ratio of 57% [15][14]

Financial Performance - Pool Corp. reported quarterly earnings of $1.32 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.42 per share, and down from $1.85 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -7.04% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.07 billion for the quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.03%, and down from $1.12 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Pool Corp. has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] Stock Performance - Pool Corp. shares have lost about 9.3% since the beginning of the year, compared to the S&P 500's decline of -8.6% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Pool Corp. is 4 (Sell), indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $5.15 on revenues of $1.78 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $11.27 on revenues of $5.36 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Pool Corp. is currently unfavorable, which may change following the recent earnings report [6] Industry Context - The Leisure and Recreation Products industry, to which Pool Corp. belongs, is currently in the bottom 27% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that industry outlook can significantly impact stock performance [5][8]