Canadian Pacific Kansas City (NYSE:CP) FY Conference February 19, 2026 08:05 AM ET Company ParticipantsChris de Bruyn - EVP of Finance and CFOKeith Creel - President and CEOConference Call ParticipantsBrandon Oglenski - Airline and Transport AnalystNone - AnalystBrandon OglenskiAll right, good morning, everyone. Welcome to day three of Barclays 43rd Annual Industrial Select Conference. I'm Brandon Oglenski, airline and transport analyst, and very excited to be kicking off, day three here with Canadian Pacif ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, overall volume decreased by 4%, leading to a 2% reduction in total revenue [17][24] - The operating ratio for the quarter was reported at 65.3, with EPS at $3.22 per share [24] - Full-year results showed a 5% increase in net income compared to the previous year, despite a revenue growth projection of 3% that did not materialize [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Merchandise volume increased by 1%, driven by the automotive and chemicals markets, with merchandise revenue (less fuel) growing by 2% year-over-year [17][19] - Intermodal business experienced a 7% decline in volume, with revenue down by 6% due to challenging market conditions [18] - Coal volume increased due to higher electricity demand, but revenue decreased by 11% due to lower seaborne coal prices [18][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The outlook for merchandise markets remains mixed, with expectations of modest manufacturing activity growth amid economic uncertainty [21] - Intermodal markets are expected to remain soft due to tariff volatility and oversupply in truck capacity [22] - Utility coal demand is expected to remain strong, while seaborne coal prices face significant pressure [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on safety, service reliability, and cost control as it navigates a challenging demand environment [29][30] - A reduction in capital spending to $1.9 billion for 2026 reflects a prudent approach while maintaining network reliability and safety [30] - The ongoing merger is viewed as a necessary catalyst for growth, enhancing competition and providing better service options for customers [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a tough demand environment and competitive pressures impacting revenue [36][50] - The company is committed to maintaining cost discipline and is prepared to handle various volume growth scenarios [30][62] - There is a focus on delivering quality revenue and optimizing service performance to retain customers [70] Other Important Information - The company achieved a record year in merchandise revenue, with significant improvements in safety performance, including zero reportable mainline derailments in Q4 [6][10] - The PSR 2.0 transformation has led to improved operational efficiency, with a 7% productivity increase despite a 4% reduction in workforce [7][12] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company thinking about volume and revenue strategy? - Management indicated a tough demand environment and acknowledged a revenue headwind from enhanced competition, focusing on maintaining cost within guidance [35][36] Question: What is the perspective on the merger and its impact on competition? - Management responded that competing railroads are opposed to the merger for self-serving reasons, emphasizing that the merger will enhance competition and provide better service options for customers [42][45] Question: What steps are being taken to stem freight leakage due to competition? - Management highlighted new service offerings and a commitment to fight for quality revenue, indicating readiness to adapt to competitive pressures [50][51] Question: Can you elaborate on the operational expense guidance and year-over-year earnings growth? - Management outlined that operational expenses are influenced by inflation, land sales, and productivity initiatives, with a focus on achieving year-over-year earnings growth despite challenges [57][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, overall volume decreased by 4%, leading to a 2% reduction in total revenue [16][24] - The operating ratio for the quarter was reported at 65.3, with adjusted EPS of $3.22 per share [23][24] - Free cash flow generated was $2.2 billion, an increase of nearly $500 million compared to the previous year [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Merchandise volume increased by 1%, driven by the automotive and chemicals markets, with merchandise revenue (less fuel) growing by 2% year-over-year [16][18] - Intermodal business experienced a 7% decline in volume, with revenue down by 6% due to challenging market conditions [16][19] - Coal volume increased due to higher electricity demand, but revenue decreased by 11% as lower seaborne coal prices impacted RPU [16][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The outlook for merchandise markets remains mixed, with expectations of modest manufacturing activity growth amid economic uncertainty [19] - Intermodal markets are expected to remain soft due to tariff volatility and oversupplied truck capacity [20] - Utility coal demand is expected to remain strong, while seaborne coal prices face significant pressure [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on safety, service reliability, and cost control as part of its operational strategy for 2026 [27][30] - A reduction in capital spending to approximately $1.9 billion for 2026 reflects a prudent approach while maintaining network safety and reliability [29][26] - The company is committed to enhancing its competitive position through the merger, which aims to create a transcontinental rail network [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a challenging demand environment and competitive landscape, particularly in the intermodal sector [34][37] - The company is prepared to fight for quality revenue and maintain strong service performance despite external pressures [36][62] - There is a focus on maintaining cost discipline while accommodating various volume growth scenarios [27][29] Other Important Information - The company achieved a record year in its merchandise business, with significant revenue growth and improved service performance [18][19] - Safety performance improved, with a 15% reduction in the FRA reportable injury ratio and a 71% improvement in the mainline accident rate year-over-year [9][10] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the company thinking about volume and revenue strategy? - Management indicated a tough demand environment and acknowledged a revenue headwind from enhanced competition, focusing on maintaining cost within guidance while accommodating various volume scenarios [33][34] Question: What is the perspective on the merger and its impact on competition? - Management responded that competing railroads are opposing the merger for their own business interests, asserting that the merger will enhance competition and provide customers with more options [40][41] Question: What steps are being taken to stem freight leakage due to competition? - Management emphasized the importance of fighting for quality revenue and highlighted new service offerings to enhance competitiveness [46][47] Question: Can you elaborate on the operational expense guidance for 2026? - Management outlined that operational expenses are influenced by inflation, land sales, and productivity initiatives, with a focus on controlling costs while preparing for various revenue scenarios [54][56]

Core Viewpoint - BNSF Railway has announced a $3.6 billion capital plan for 2026, primarily focused on infrastructure maintenance and modernization to meet customer needs and support growth [1][2]. Infrastructure Maintenance - The majority of the capital plan, amounting to $2.8 billion, is allocated for infrastructure maintenance, which includes replacing 400 miles of rail and over 2.5 million ties, as well as approximately 13,000 miles of track surfacing [1][2]. Expansion and Efficiency Projects - An additional $358 million is designated for expansion and efficiency projects, which encompasses property acquisitions and development for the $1.5 billion Barstow International Gateway project and the $3.2 billion Logistics Park Phoenix, the latter facing zoning challenges [3]. - Other projects include yard expansions in Galesburg, Illinois, and Winslow, Arizona [3].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Union Pacific reported a full-year net income of $7.1 billion, an increase of 6%, and earnings per share of $11.98, up 8% compared to 2024 [9] - The adjusted operating ratio improved by 60 basis points to 59.3% versus 2024 [10] - Full-year cash from operations totaled $9.3 billion, roughly flat compared to 2024, while cash return to shareholders grew by 25% to $5.9 billion [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the fourth quarter, operating revenue was $6.1 billion, a decrease of 1% year-over-year, with freight revenue of $5.8 billion also down 1% on a 4% lower volume [12] - Bulk segment revenue increased by 3% due to a 3% increase in volume, while industrial revenue was up 1% on a 1% increase in volume [18][19] - Premium revenue declined by 6% despite a 10% increase in volume, reflecting business mix and higher fuel surcharges [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The competitive and global market environment impacted quarterly pricing and mix, particularly in agricultural sectors [12] - Domestic intermodal volumes faced challenges due to lower West Coast imports and customer shifts, although 2025 was the best-ever year for domestic intermodal [20] - The outlook for 2026 indicates a softer environment, with industrial production forecasted to be flat and housing starts expected to decline by more than 2% [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain a strong focus on safety, service, and operational excellence to drive growth and improve margins [30][32] - Capital spending for 2026 is targeted at approximately $3.3 billion, prioritizing core infrastructure and modernization of the locomotive fleet [28] - The merger with Norfolk Southern is expected to enhance competition and improve service delivery, with a focus on regulatory compliance and transparency [40][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in operational capabilities despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, with expectations for mid-single-digit earnings growth in 2026 [33] - The company anticipates inflation of slightly over 4% in 2026, impacting cost structures but remains committed to improving operating ratios [32] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a buffer of resources to handle increased traffic post-merger and ensure service reliability [61][62] Other Important Information - The company achieved best-ever results in safety performance, with significant improvements in personal injury and derailment rates [25] - The company plans to continue investing in targeted capacity projects to support growth initiatives and enhance operational efficiency [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: How will the company improve operating ratio in 2026 given inflation and lack of price support? - Management indicated that improvements will come from productivity gains and a more favorable business mix, despite challenges in pricing [46][48] Question: Can you elaborate on the $2 billion targeted net revenue gains from the merger? - Management expressed confidence in the traffic growth estimates and the ability to handle increased business efficiently, emphasizing the importance of capacity investments [53][56] Question: What is the outlook for mid-single-digit growth into 2027? - Management acknowledged the pressure on 2027 growth targets but remains optimistic about capitalizing on market opportunities [67][73] Question: How does the new switching regulation impact the business? - Management supports increased competition and optionality for customers, emphasizing the need for clarity in regulatory details [81][84]

Core Insights - Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) is recognized as one of the 12 Most Profitable Dividend Stocks to consider for investment in 2026 [1] Merger Update - Union Pacific's proposed $85 billion merger with Norfolk Southern was rejected by the US Surface Transportation Board (STB) due to an incomplete application, which lacked necessary information regarding market share and competitive impact [2][3][4] - The STB's decision was made "without prejudice," allowing Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern the opportunity to resubmit their application after addressing the identified gaps [2][4] - Canadian National's submission highlighted deficiencies in the merger application, particularly regarding competitive disclosures and the identification of affected routes and shippers [5] Company Overview - Union Pacific operates one of the largest rail networks in the US, covering over 23 states in the western two-thirds of the country, playing a crucial role in the domestic and global supply chain [7] - The company argues that the merger would enhance service reliability, shift freight from trucks to rail, maintain shipper choice, and provide broad public benefits while safeguarding union jobs [6]

Financial Performance - CSX reported a 2% decline in profit for the fourth quarter, earning $720 million, or 39 cents per share, compared to $733 million, or 38 cents per share in the previous year [1] - The profit was impacted by approximately $50 million in one-time costs, which reduced earnings by 2 cents per share; without these costs, earnings would have met analyst expectations of 41 cents per share [2] - Revenue for the quarter decreased by 1% to $3.51 billion [2] Industry Context - The competitive landscape in the railroad industry may shift significantly if Union Pacific's proposed $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern is approved, which could create a new transcontinental railroad controlling nearly half of all freight [3][4] - CSX and BNSF are expected to face competitive disadvantages if the merger occurs, as it could improve delivery times significantly [4] Strategic Focus - CSX is concentrating on enhancing productivity while managing costs, with expectations of only modest economic growth and low single-digit revenue growth for the year [5] - The company has withdrawn its revenue targets for 2027 that were set previously due to current uncertainties [5] - CSX completed two major construction projects that had previously disrupted its network, which has improved operational efficiency, raising average train speeds to 19.6 mph and achieving 87% on-time delivery for shipments [6] Future Developments - The completion of the tunnel renovation project will enable CSX to start transporting double-stacked metal shipping containers across its network this year, although competitor Norfolk Southern has also announced a similar service [7]

Financial Performance - BNSF Railway reported revenues of $5.988 billion for Q3 2025, an increase from $5.881 billion in Q3 2024, indicating a positive financial trend [1] - Pre-tax earnings for the quarter rose to $1.912 billion from $1.846 billion, while net earnings increased to $1.449 billion from $1.383 billion [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, total revenues reached $17.390 billion, up from $17.242 billion year-over-year, with pre-tax earnings improving to $5.324 billion from $4.987 billion and net earnings rising to $4.129 billion from $3.753 billion [3] Operational Metrics - The operating ratio for Q3 2025 was reported at 64.1%, which is an improvement of 0.9% year-over-year [1] - The operating ratio for the first nine months of 2025 was 65.6%, reflecting a 1.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [3] Shipment and Volume Trends - In Q3 2025, shipments of consumer products increased by 2.2%, while agriculture and energy commodities saw a gain of 0.9% [2] - Industrial products and coal shipments experienced declines of 1.9% and 2.1%, respectively [2] - The growth in volumes was attributed to increased intermodal traffic from West Coast imports and gains in automotive vehicle movement [2] - Average revenue per car/unit increased by 0.8% in Q3 2025 but declined by 1.4% in the first nine months of 2025 year-over-year [2]

Summary of Norfolk Southern (NSC) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) - **Date of Conference**: June 10, 2025 - **Key Speakers**: John (Operating Officer), Jason Zanpey (Chief Financial Officer) Key Points and Arguments Industry and Operational Performance - **Current Operations**: Operations are running smoothly with a disciplined approach, reflecting positively on service and safety performance [6][7] - **Volume Growth**: Volume is up approximately 4.5% quarter-to-date, with carloads moving in the high 130,000s weekly [10][12] - **Revenue Growth Expectations**: Revenue growth is expected to be lower than volume growth due to headwinds from fuel prices and coal prices [12][41] Financial Goals and Productivity - **Productivity Initiatives**: A target of over $150 million in productivity improvements is set, with good progress made in Q1 [7][25] - **Operating Ratio Improvement**: Aiming for a 150 basis points improvement year-over-year, with expectations to outperform the previous quarter's 67.9% [8][24] - **Cost Management**: The company has successfully managed costs despite challenges, with a focus on continuous improvement and operational efficiency [29][30] Market Dynamics and Challenges - **Coal Market**: Utility coal volumes are strong due to restocking, while export coal faces price degradation impacting production [20][22] - **Intermodal and Merchandise**: Intermodal volumes are stable, but there are pressures in the steel, grain, and aggregates markets [23][42] Regulatory Environment and Technology - **Regulatory Changes**: Discussions with the FRA regarding the implementation of technology for inspections to enhance efficiency and safety [46][48] - **Technological Advancements**: Emphasis on using technology to improve operational capabilities and reduce regulatory burdens [51][53] Mergers and Acquisitions - **M&A Potential**: There is potential for transcontinental mergers, but the focus remains on enhancing productivity and service rather than pursuing M&A distractions [55][56] Future Outlook - **Revenue Growth Guidance**: The company maintains a revenue growth target of 3%, contingent on macroeconomic conditions [61][62] - **Share Repurchase Strategy**: Plans to continue share repurchases while balancing investments in the business and dividends [66] - **CapEx Reduction**: CapEx is expected to decrease by $200 million from 2024 levels due to improved network fluidity [71] Workforce Management - **Headcount Strategy**: The company is hiring to ensure adequate staffing, particularly for conductors, to avoid operational delays [73][74] Additional Important Insights - **Customer Engagement**: Strong relationships with customers are emphasized to ensure service reliability and attract freight back to the railroad [43][44] - **Operational Resilience**: The company has built resilience into its operations to handle fluctuations in demand effectively [17][19] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the Norfolk Southern conference call, highlighting the company's operational performance, financial goals, market dynamics, and strategic outlook.