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Adani likely to win Jaiprakash Associates insolvency race, beat Vedanta
BusinessLine· 2025-11-10 01:13
Core Viewpoint - Adani Enterprises Ltd is positioned to become the highest bidder for Jaiprakash Associates Ltd (JAL) in the ongoing insolvency process, offering a more favorable payment structure compared to Vedanta Group's bid [1][4]. Bid Evaluation - In early September, Vedanta Group initially emerged as the highest bidder with an offer of Rs 12,505 crore in net present value (NPV) [2]. - The committee of creditors (CoC) evaluated the bids and scored Adani Enterprises Ltd's resolution plan as the highest, followed by Dalmia Cement (Bharat) and Vedanta Ltd [4]. - The CoC is expected to vote on the resolution plan in the next two weeks [4]. Payment Structures - Adani Group proposes to make payments to lenders within two years, while Vedanta's offer includes back-ended payments over five years [5]. - Dalmia Cement's payment plans are contingent upon a Supreme Court judgment regarding a pending matter with the development authority YEIDA [5]. Promoters' Involvement - The former promoters of JAL submitted a last-minute offer to settle with lenders but did not provide a clear source of funds, which is typically seen as an attempt to disrupt the resolution process [6]. Company Background - JAL has diverse business interests, including real estate, cement manufacturing, hospitality, and engineering & construction, and was admitted into the Corporate Insolvency Resolution Process (CIRP) on June 3, 2024 [7]. - The company faced insolvency after defaulting on loan payments, with financial creditors claiming around Rs 60,000 crore [8]. Business Operations - JAL's major projects include Jaypee Greens in Greater Noida and Jaypee International Sports City near the upcoming Jewar International Airport [11]. - The company operates four cement plants in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, although these plants are currently non-operational [12]. - Financial stress has impacted JAL's various business operations, including significant engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects [13].
中国房地产:从贝塔到阿尔法-留意商业银行稀释影响-China Real Estate_ From beta to alpha (2) – Be mindful of MCB dilutions
2025-08-18 02:52
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China Real Estate Equities** sector, particularly the implications of **mandatory convertible bonds (MCB)** on distressed developers [1][2]. Core Insights - **Debt Restructuring Risks**: Despite some progress in debt restructuring for distressed developers, there are significant risks associated with MCBs, particularly regarding share dilution and its impact on share prices. This is crucial for investors seeking beta opportunities [2][3]. - **Sunac Case Study**: The share price of **Sunac** was initially supported by debt restructuring progress but faced substantial pressure post-MCB conversion, with an estimated share increase of **75-114%** upon conversion leading to considerable downside risks [3][10]. - **Investor Sentiment**: There is a rising risk appetite among investors, as evidenced by the resilience of stocks like **Greentown** and **C&D** following profit alerts and share placements. Mid-cap developers are viewed as having better risk-reward profiles due to stronger fundamentals [4]. Stock Preferences - **Preferred Stocks**: **CR Land** and **C&D International** are rated as "Buy" due to their strong execution capabilities and potential for alpha generation. Both companies have seen **36-44%** year-to-date share price gains, with expectations for further catalysts such as margin recovery and new land acquisitions [5][8]. - **Market Conditions**: Disappointing national data is expected to have a lesser impact on the share prices of these preferred stocks compared to risks such as lower-than-expected sales and prices of high-end projects, cooling land markets, and macroeconomic concerns [5]. Additional Considerations - **Valuation and Risks**: The report outlines the valuation methodologies for CR Land and C&D, emphasizing the importance of maintaining sales momentum and managing margin expectations. Risks include potential slowdowns in land acquisition and sales deterioration [23]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the broader market dynamics affecting the real estate sector, including the impact of MCBs on share capital and the overall sentiment towards distressed developers [8][12]. Conclusion - The analysis underscores the complexities within the China real estate sector, particularly the implications of MCBs on share dilution and investor sentiment. The focus on specific stocks like CR Land and C&D reflects a strategic approach to navigating potential investment opportunities amidst ongoing market challenges [2][5][8].