Artificial intelligence (AI) is broadly expected to turbocharge the pace of data center construction in 2026, with hyperscalers racing to meet soaring compute demand. And since data center buildout often raises power prices for local communities, the idea of on-site power generation may start to resonate with the AI titan this year. Against that backdrop, Bernstein senior analyst Chad Dillars argues Caterpillar Inc (NYSE: CAT) could emerge as the biggest corporate beneficiary in the months ahead. At the tim ...

Core Insights - The reshoring trend and the push for supply-chain independence are significantly transforming U.S. manufacturing, driven by factors such as post-pandemic vulnerabilities, trade disputes, and recent tariff policies [1][2]. Industry Overview - The imposition of import tariffs on various products has made offshore production costly, prompting companies to relocate manufacturing back to the U.S. to stabilize supply chains and avoid tariffs [2]. - Favorable U.S. government policies, including the CHIPS & Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), are encouraging investments in sectors like semiconductors and clean energy, which in turn is boosting demand for related industries [3]. Company Focus: Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) - Caterpillar has shifted its construction equipment production from Japan to Georgia and Texas, enhancing its supply chain efficiency and reducing transit times [6]. - The company plans to invest $725 million in its engine manufacturing facility in Lafayette, IN, to improve workforce skills and meet rising demand for power generation engines [6]. - CAT's shares have increased by 60.6% over the past year, with earnings growth expected to be 19% in 2026 [8]. Company Focus: EnerSys (ENS) - EnerSys is relocating battery production to Kentucky to avoid tariffs and leverage IRA tax credits, ceasing operations in its Mexican facility [10]. - The company anticipates benefiting from the IRA, expecting its products to qualify for tax credits, which will support its high-density battery portfolio expansion [11]. - ENS shares have risen 62.6% in the past year, with projected earnings growth of 20.7% for fiscal 2027 [12]. Company Focus: GE Aerospace - GE Aerospace is investing $1 billion in U.S. manufacturing to enhance production capabilities and meet growing demand for engines and services [13][16]. - This investment is expected to create approximately 5,000 jobs in the U.S. and focuses on improving engine quality and delivery [16]. - GE's shares have surged 87.5% over the past year, with earnings growth projected at 13.1% for 2026 [17].

Core Viewpoint - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is facing challenges with declining sales volumes and revenues, leading to concerns about its premium valuation compared to peers in the manufacturing - construction and mining industry [1][3][19] Financial Performance - CAT is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.55X, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.87X [1] - The stock has underperformed, losing 6% year-to-date compared to the industry's 5.8% decline and the S&P 500's 0.9% decline [4][5] - Revenue growth has been negative for the past four quarters, with earnings also declining in the last two quarters [7][8] Market Conditions - The company has experienced declining volume growth for five consecutive quarters, particularly in its Resource Industries and Construction Industries segments [7] - Weak demand in China, especially in the real estate sector, has negatively impacted CAT's performance [8] - The outlook for 2025 suggests revenues will be slightly lower than the 2024 actual of $64.8 billion, with a revenue guidance range of $42-$72 billion [9] Order Trends and Tariff Concerns - Recent data indicates a slowdown in new orders due to uncertainty regarding tariffs, with the New Orders Index contracting to 48.6% in February [11] - The ISM Prices Index showed an increase, reflecting rising commodity prices due to tariff impacts [11] Earnings Estimates - Over the past 60 days, 11 analysts have downgraded their earnings estimates for 2025, with no upward revisions [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings decline of 10.3% for 2025, with a slight revenue drop of 2.3% [12] Long-Term Prospects - Despite current challenges, CAT is expected to benefit from the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which will create opportunities for its construction equipment [16] - The shift towards clean energy and advancements in autonomous fleet technology are anticipated to drive demand for CAT's products [16][17] - The company is on track to double its service revenues from $14 billion in 2016 to $28 billion in 2026, indicating strong growth potential in aftermarket parts and services [18]