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After a 58% Run in 2025, is CAT Stock Still a Buy in 2026?
ZACKS· 2026-01-02 17:31
Core Insights - Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) shares have increased by 57.9% over the past year, outperforming the manufacturing-construction and mining industry's growth of 55.9% [1] - The company has also surpassed peers such as Komatsu (KMTUY) and Terex Corp. (TEX) in stock performance [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Caterpillar reported revenues of $17.6 billion, a 9.5% increase, ending a streak of six consecutive quarters of revenue declines [6][10] - The backlog rose by $2.4 billion to a record $39.9 billion, enhancing revenue visibility [11] - Earnings per share fell by 4% to $4.95 due to rising costs, but the decline has slowed significantly compared to earlier quarters [12] Market Position and Valuation - Caterpillar is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 30.96, higher than the industry average of 28.51 [16] - The company's return on equity (ROE) stands at 47.16%, exceeding the industry average of 46.52% and the S&P 500's 32.48% [17] Growth Prospects - Long-term growth is supported by increased infrastructure spending under the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the global energy transition [20] - Caterpillar is experiencing strong demand for reciprocating engines for data centers, planning to double output through capital investment [21] - The company has entered a collaboration to develop advanced energy optimization solutions for data centers, which will enhance its high-margin aftermarket parts and services revenue [22] Future Earnings Outlook - Earnings estimates for 2025 indicate a decline of 15.57%, but a rebound of 18.95% is expected in 2026 [14] - The Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) reinforces a positive outlook for Caterpillar, supported by its return to revenue growth and strong long-term growth drivers [24]