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Graphic Packaging(GPK) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-29 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q2 2025, Graphic Packaging reported sales of $2.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $336 million, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.3% [5][25] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.42, with overall volume up approximately 1% [25][30] - Packaging prices were approximately 1% lower, reflecting third-party price recognition from 2024 [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Volumes in The Americas were modestly better than expected, driven by increased beverage promotions and targeted promotional activity in food and foodservice [5][11] - Innovation sales growth reached $61 million in Q2, on track to meet the 2% of sales growth target for the full year [12][13] - Food results remained uneven, with snacks under pressure while pasta, sauces, and prepared foods saw gains [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International results remained positive but growth slowed, confirming that consumers in those markets are also stretched [11] - Private label and store brands continue to gain traction in select food categories, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [12] - Beverage season in 2025 started strong, with good growth in carbonated soft drinks and moderation in beer decline [15][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The last major investment in the Vision 2025 program is nearing completion, with expectations to generate cash substantially in excess of needs starting in 2026 [5][6] - The company is focused on sustainability, with recycled paperboard being a key area of growth due to its lower environmental footprint [7][9] - Graphic Packaging aims to grow its presence in household products and health and beauty sectors, leveraging recycled paperboard as a more appealing alternative [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumers are stretched, impacting spending habits, with more money spent on groceries but fewer items purchased [10] - The company expects second-half adjusted EBITDA margins to improve significantly due to inventory management and less scheduled maintenance [30] - There is caution among CPG and QSR customers regarding near-term volume outlooks, reflecting broader economic uncertainties [30][56] Other Important Information - Capital expenditures for 2025 are estimated at $850 million, with a decline to 5% of sales in 2026 [6][31] - The company has repurchased 1.6% of its outstanding shares during Q2 at an average price of $22.26 per share [28] - The Waco investment is expected to provide significant economic and quality advantages, with anticipated EBITDA contributions of $80 million in 2026 [30][54] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of increased capital spending on free cash flow in 2026 - Management clarified that the increase in capital expenditures for 2025 will not change free cash flow expectations for that year, with 2026 cash flow updated to reflect current EBITDA expectations [35][36] Question: Drivers of higher permitting and labor costs for Waco - Management explained that higher labor costs, particularly for electricians, and evolving project requirements contributed to increased costs, but they remain optimistic about the project's returns [39][41] Question: Confidence in achieving second-half margin targets - Management outlined that reduced planned maintenance and inventory management would contribute to improved margins in the second half of the year [47][48] Question: Competitive dynamics in the packaging market - Management noted that the oversupply in the solid bleached market has created a competitive environment, but they have been able to outperform their customers [105]