Company Overview - Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) is a U.S. home construction and real estate company focusing on residential communities and related financial services [2] - The company has a market capitalization of $36 billion and generated $35 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, achieving operational profitability with operating profits of $4.1 billion and net income of $3.3 billion [3] Earnings Projections - Lennar is set to announce its earnings on September 18, 2025, with consensus projections of approximately $2.10 per share in earnings and $9.05 billion in revenue [2] - The projected revenue represents a roughly 4% decline year-over-year, influenced by high mortgage rates, affordability challenges, and weak consumer confidence [2] Sales and Market Strategy - To maintain sales momentum, Lennar has increasingly relied on sales incentives, which have helped sustain unit sales but also led to margin compression, limiting potential earnings growth [2] - The company's focus on first-time and entry-level buyers makes it particularly vulnerable to affordability issues, as these customers are most affected by borrowing costs [2] Historical Earnings Performance - Over the past five years, Lennar has recorded 20 earnings data points, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 40% of the time [6] - The median of the 8 positive returns is 3.7%, while the median of the 12 negative returns is -4.0% [6] Correlation and Trading Strategies - Understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings can inform trading strategies, particularly if 1D and 5D returns show a strong correlation [7] - The performance of peers can also influence stock reactions following earnings, with market pricing potentially reflecting these influences prior to the earnings announcement [8]