President Trump has been threatening tariffs on India unless it stops buying Russian crude and the European Union has been preparing to cut off all gas imports into the bloc within two years—even against member states’ wishes. Yet the latest data shows that Russia is still exporting a lot of oil and gas—including to the EU. Last month, China remained the biggest buyer of Russian crude oil, even as the U.S. president says that once he deals with India on that matter, he would turn to China. According to cu ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing situation regarding India's purchase of Russian oil is creating tension in global trade, particularly with the United States expressing displeasure over India's decision to continue these imports for consumer benefit [1]. Group 1: India's Oil Imports - India is the second largest buyer of Russian crude oil, purchasing approximately 1.8 million barrels per day, which is significant for its refining business [3]. - The refineries in India are optimized for the type of crude oil that Russia produces, making it challenging for India to switch to other sources like those from the Arab Gulf [4]. Group 2: Market Volatility - The situation is introducing considerable volatility in the oil markets due to supply uncertainty stemming from Russia [2]. - Market participants are uncertain about whether India or the U.S. will make concessions regarding the oil trade, leading to fluctuating market sentiments [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - It is anticipated that India may reduce its imports of Russian oil slightly to ease tensions but is unlikely to cease purchases entirely, risking potential sanctions from the U.S. [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has increased tariffs on India to 50% and is pressuring India to stop importing Russian oil, which could lead to a spike in global crude prices [1][2][7]. Group 1: U.S. Tariffs and Pressure on India - The U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on India, raising the total to 50%, accusing India of supporting Russia's war efforts through oil imports [2]. - Industry sources indicate that if India halts Russian oil imports, global crude prices could exceed $200 per barrel [7]. - India's petroleum minister stated that the price of oil could have reached $130 per barrel without Russian oil imports, highlighting the previous U.S. encouragement to buy Russian oil [10]. Group 2: India's Oil Imports and Market Dynamics - India is a significant buyer of Russian oil, importing approximately 1.7 million barrels per day out of Russia's total exports of 3.35 million barrels per day [3]. - The share of Russian crude in India's total imports was 38% in 2023 and 2024, and is projected to be 36% in 2025, indicating a strong reliance on Russian oil [6]. - Industry sources argue that India is stabilizing global oil prices by purchasing Russian crude, which is not under sanctions but is traded under a price cap [4][12]. Group 3: Global Oil Market Implications - The removal of Russian oil from the market could lead to a significant increase in global oil prices, with predictions of Brent prices rising to $80 or above in the near term [8]. - The U.S. price cap on Russian oil, set at $60 per barrel, aims to limit Moscow's revenue while maintaining a stable supply in the market [12][16]. - OPEC+ has the capacity to adjust output to stabilize prices, but a complete drop in Russian crude production could deplete that spare capacity [15][16].