Core Viewpoint - 2026 is expected to be another significant year for precious metals, particularly gold, which has seen a substantial increase in demand due to economic uncertainties and political turmoil [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) experienced a remarkable 64% increase in 2025, outperforming all major U.S. stock market indices [2]. - The U.S. government faced a $1.8 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2025, raising national debt to a record $38.5 trillion, with another trillion-dollar deficit anticipated in fiscal 2026 [8]. Group 2: Demand Factors - Gold's appeal as a store of value is partly due to its scarcity, with only 216,265 tons mined throughout history, compared to 1.7 million tons of silver [4]. - The depreciation of paper currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar, has driven investors towards gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [5][8]. Group 3: Historical Context and Expectations - Historically, gold has averaged an annual gain of 8% over the last 30 years, suggesting that while conditions are favorable for price increases, expectations should be tempered following the extraordinary 64% gain in 2025 [9][10]. - The S&P 500 index has outperformed gold, averaging an 11% annual gain over the same period, indicating that gold may not always be the best investment compared to income-generating assets [10]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Gold can be a valuable component of a diversified portfolio, especially in the current economic climate, with recommendations from notable investors like Ray Dalio suggesting a 15% allocation to gold [12]. - The SPDR Gold ETF offers a convenient way for investors to gain exposure to gold without the storage and insurance costs associated with physical gold [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The current rally in gold prices, as indicated by the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD), presents both opportunities and risks for investors, suggesting that gold can be both a profitable investment and prone to significant declines at the same time [1][2]. Summary by Sections Gold Market Performance - Gold has experienced a nearly parabolic increase, rising 20% since late August [1]. - The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) for GLD has reached an all-time high, indicating it is more richly valued than at any point in the last 20 years, with a historical precedent of a nearly 50% decline following similar peaks in 2012 [2]. Investment Strategies - Investors in GLD have seen solid gains recently, and a recommended strategy to mitigate risk while retaining upside is to reduce their position size, effectively locking in some profits [5]. - The use of leveraged ETFs, such as the Direxion Daily Gold Bull 3X Shares ETF (BAR), allows investors to "downshift" after a profitable trade by selling GLD and reallocating a small portion into BAR for increased volatility [5].