Summary of BYD Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: BYD Co. (002594.SZ/1211.HK) - **Industry**: New Energy Vehicles (NEV) Key Points Growth Potential in Overseas Markets - **Overseas Market Growth**: BYD expects overseas markets to be a major growth driver, projecting sales volume to increase by 5%-14% to 1.5 million - 3.5 million units from 2026E to 2035E [1] - **NEV Penetration**: Current NEV penetration in key overseas markets is about 16%, approximately four years behind China. It is anticipated to follow China's >10% penetration increase from 2022 to 2024 [1][15] - **Total Addressable Market (TAM)**: By 2035E, overseas NEV penetration could reach China's level in 2028E, creating a TAM of 28 million units [1] Product Competitiveness - **Market Share Gain**: BYD's models are highly competitive in price, range, and size, with several models becoming best-sellers in their segments. The company aims for an 8% overseas passenger vehicle market share by 2035E, up from 1% in 2024 [2] - **Model Offerings**: BYD has a comprehensive portfolio of models and is well-positioned to capture top volume market share among global NEV companies [2] Financial Projections - **Earnings Growth**: BYD forecasts a 30% earnings CAGR from 2025E to 2028E, with overseas profit contribution increasing from 21% in 2024 to 60% by 2028E [5] - **Revised Estimates**: 2025E volume is lowered by 6%, while 2026E-2030E volume is increased by up to 3%. Net profit estimates are revised by -14% to +9% [5] Overseas Business Outlook - **Sales Volume Performance**: BYD's overseas sales volume has exceeded expectations, driven by expanding supply and successful new model launches [13][14] - **Dealer Network Expansion**: The company has rapidly expanded its dealer network, estimating a fourfold increase in the top 10 markets by the end of 2025 [16][43] Sustainability of Profit Levels - **Unit Profit Levels**: BYD maintains a unit profit of Rmb20k+ in overseas markets, supported by localized factories expected to achieve high utilization rates [25][26] - **Profitability Analysis**: The analysis indicates that overseas factories could sustain high unit profits despite higher costs [26] Inventory and Sales Dynamics - **Wholesale vs. Retail Volume**: The gap between wholesale and retail sales volume is narrowing, indicating healthy sales momentum and inventory levels [35][38] New Model Launches - **Model Launches in 2025**: BYD launched 8 new vehicle models in 1H25, compared to 6 and 7 in 2023 and 2024, respectively [44] - **Competitive Models**: Key models contributing to incremental volume include Song Plus DM-i, Sea Lion 07 EV, and Seagull, which have shown high competitiveness in their respective markets [45][56] Market Penetration and Future Projections - **Future Sales Projections**: BYD's total sales volume is estimated to reach approximately 9 million units by 2035E, with around 3.5 million from overseas markets [11] Additional Insights - **NEV Adoption Policies**: Favorable policies in top destinations support NEV adoption, although some countries are increasing tariffs and localization requirements [15][42] - **Competitive Landscape**: BYD's product portfolio still has room for expansion compared to local market leaders, indicating potential for further market share growth [14][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights from BYD's conference call, highlighting the company's growth strategies, market dynamics, and financial outlook in the NEV sector.