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Is StubHub About To Turn Big Opportunities Into Bigger Profits?
Benzingaยท 2025-10-13 18:15
Core Insights - StubHub Holdings, Inc. is positioned to accelerate revenue growth by leveraging its dominant market share, launching Direct Issuance initiatives, and expanding advertising opportunities, aiming to outperform broader online marketplace trends [1] - Bank of America analyst Justin Post initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $25 price target, emphasizing StubHub's leadership as North America's largest secondary ticket marketplace with nearly 50% market share [1] Financial Performance - StubHub has invested over $900 million in sales and marketing, surpassing some competitors' total revenue, which presents an opportunity for improved operating leverage [2] - The analyst anticipates StubHub's EBITDA margins to more than double by 2026, approaching 40% in the long term, driven by enhanced marketing efficiency, profitability in Direct Issuance, and growth in the Advertising segment [3] Market Position and Consumer Sentiment - StubHub is identified as the most frequently used secondary ticketing platform, outperforming major competitors in buying experience and pricing perception [4][5] - A Bank of America survey indicates consumers plan to maintain ticket spending levels over the next year, with a shift towards increased spending on secondary marketplaces [5] Growth Catalysts - Three near-term catalysts are highlighted: the launch of advertising on the platform, new team partnership deals, and the upcoming U.S. World Cup, which could enhance investor confidence in StubHub's growth prospects [4] Risks and Challenges - Execution risk is a primary concern, focusing on management's ability to rationalize spending while gaining market share and achieving planned growth in Direct Issuance and Advertising [6] - Additional risks include pressure from All-In Pricing mandates, dynamic pricing impacts, potential regulatory initiatives, and the upcoming lock-up expiration in Q1 2026 [7] Valuation - The $25 price target is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, applying a 10x multiple to 2026E Resale EBITDA and a 2x multiple to 2027E Direct Issuance sales, resulting in an implied 11x multiple on 2026E EBITDA [8]