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FSLR vs. CSIQ: U.S. Thin-Film Leader or Global Volume Player?
ZACKS· 2025-11-26 16:10
Core Insights - The rising demand for solar energy is attracting investor interest in companies within the solar value chain, particularly First Solar (FSLR) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ) [1][2] Group 1: Industry Trends - Solar power is rapidly growing as a solution for cleaner energy, with significant increases in solar photovoltaic (PV) installations across various markets [2] - Government incentives, corporate decarbonization efforts, and consumer adoption of renewable technologies are driving the surge in solar deployment [2] Group 2: First Solar (FSLR) Overview - First Solar is expanding its manufacturing capacity to meet global solar demand, producing 3.6 gigawatts (GW) and selling 5.3 GW of modules in Q3 2025, with a total nameplate capacity of 23.5 GW [3] - The company is adding a new 3.7 GW module finishing line in the U.S., expected to begin operations in late 2026, which will enhance its global presence and revenue growth [3] - A new $1.1 billion AI-enabled manufacturing facility in Louisiana will add 3.5 GW of annual capacity, improve quality control, and reduce costs while using U.S.-sourced materials [4] Group 3: Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Overview - Canadian Solar is a vertically integrated clean-energy company, known for high-quality crystalline silicon solar panels and expanding into energy infrastructure, including large-scale solar power plants and energy-storage projects [5] - The company secured a German battery energy storage system contract in November 2025, marking a strategic shift towards becoming a full-fledged energy-storage and grid-solutions provider [6] Group 4: Financial Performance and Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for First Solar's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) indicates a decrease of 3.25%, while Canadian Solar's EPS estimates show increases of 18.94% for 2025 and 61.5% for 2026 [8][10] - First Solar has a total debt to capital ratio of 5.8%, significantly lower than Canadian Solar's 60.41% [11] - In the past six months, FSLR shares have risen by 64.8%, while CSIQ shares have increased by 149.5% [12] Group 5: Valuation Comparison - FSLR shares trade at a forward Price/Sales (P/S F12M) multiple of 4.56, compared to CSIQ's P/S F12M of 0.22, indicating a significant valuation difference [13] Group 6: Strategic Positioning - Both companies operate in the solar market but with different strategies; Canadian Solar focuses on scale and a diversified clean-energy ecosystem, while First Solar emphasizes high-efficiency thin-film technology and U.S.-based production [14] - Currently, Canadian Solar is favored due to its better price performance and earnings growth compared to First Solar [15]
First Solar(FSLR) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-30 21:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q3 earnings of $4.24 per diluted share, which is near the midpoint of the previous earnings call forecast [4] - Gross cash increased to $2 billion, supported by improved working capital and accelerated customer payments [5][30] - Net sales totaled $1.6 billion, representing an increase of $0.5 billion compared to the prior quarter [26] - Gross margin for the quarter was 38%, a decrease from 46% in the prior quarter [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company secured gross bookings of approximately 2.7 gigawatts at a base ASP of $0.309 per watt [4] - Delivered a record 5.3 gigawatts of module sales, including 2.5 gigawatts from U.S. manufacturing facilities [25][26] - The current expected contracted backlog is approximately 54.5 gigawatts, valued at $16.4 billion [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand in the U.S. remained strong, but the company recorded foliar debookings totaling 8.1 gigawatts as of September 30 [19] - The majority of debookings were driven by contract terminations with affiliates of BP, accounting for 6.6 gigawatts [19][22] - The company anticipates that the modules produced at the new U.S. facility will qualify for 45X module assembly tax credits [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to establish a new production facility in the U.S. with a capacity of 3.7 gigawatts, expected to start production in late 2026 [10][11] - The strategy includes reshoring supply chains and expanding U.S. manufacturing production to mitigate tariff impacts [15][41] - The company is actively pursuing enforcement of its intellectual property rights against competitors [6][8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the strategic shift of multinational oil and gas companies moving away from renewables [21] - The U.S. policy and trade environment remains generally favorable, providing certainty to customers regarding pricing and delivery [12] - Management highlighted ongoing challenges related to supply chain disruptions and the impact of tariffs on production [24][34] Other Important Information - The company recognized $81 million in contract termination payments, with $61 million related to the contract breach with BP affiliates [26] - Warranty-related obligations are estimated to range from $50 million to $90 million, with a specific liability of $65 million recorded [27] - Capital expenditures totaled $204 million in Q3, mainly driven by investments in the Louisiana facility [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the 6.6 gigawatts of termination with BP, what kind of incremental pricing can be expected for rebooking? - The company will engage in discussions to find the right opportunities for this volume, aiming for good pricing, with indicative pricing around $0.36 per watt [43][44] Question: Is there room for negotiation with fixed-price contracts in light of new tariffs? - Existing contracts do not allow for adjustments related to revised tariff environments, and the company takes its contractual obligations seriously [45][46] Question: Can you provide an update on the confidence level in the 54.5 gigawatt backlog? - There are indications from several large oil and gas multinationals reevaluating their commitment to renewables, which could impact the backlog [58][59]