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Serve Robotics Guides for 60-75% Delivery Surge in Q2: Too Bold?
ZACKSยท 2025-07-24 16:25
Core Insights - Serve Robotics (SERV) is projecting a significant growth in delivery volume, expecting a 60% to 75% quarter-over-quarter increase for Q2 2025, following a 75% increase in the first quarter due to the deployment of 250 third-generation robots in major cities [1][10] Company Growth and Expansion - The company has expanded its geographic footprint and merchant base, now serving over 1,500 restaurants, which is five times more than a year ago, and has increased daily supply hours by over 40% since Q4 2024 [2] - Serve aims to deploy a total of 2,000 robots by the end of 2025, with plans to launch in Atlanta in Q2 and an additional 700 robots expected by the end of Q3 [2] Financial Performance - In Q1, revenues rose 150% sequentially to $440,000, but adjusted EBITDA remained negative at $7.1 million, indicating ongoing financial challenges [3] - The company ended the quarter with $198 million in cash, but the path to profitability remains uncertain [3] Competitive Landscape - Serve Robotics faces competition from larger players like Uber and DoorDash, both of which are investing heavily in autonomous delivery and last-mile logistics [5][6] - The competitive pressure from Uber's global delivery volume and DoorDash's extensive merchant network poses challenges for Serve's market share in urban delivery [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - SERV shares have surged 79.7% in the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry and the S&P 500 index [8] - The stock trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 26.11, significantly higher than the industry average [12] Earnings Estimates - SERV's bottom-line estimates for 2025 remain unchanged at a loss of 93 cents per share, indicating a decline from a loss of 67 cents per share reported a year ago [14]