Core Insights - BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on October 30, 2025, after market close [1] - In the previous quarter, BJRI's earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 40.6%, while revenues fell short by 1% [1] - The company has surpassed earnings estimates in three out of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 102.7% [1] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter indicates a loss of 1 cent per share, compared to a loss of 13 cents per share in the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue expectations are set at approximately $335.6 million, reflecting a 3% increase from the prior-year quarter [2] Growth Drivers - Strong traffic momentum is anticipated, driven by the Pizookie Meal Deal (PMD), which is expected to enhance repeat visits and attract new customers [3] - Menu innovations, including the Smash Burger and upgrades to existing offerings, are likely to improve customer engagement and value perception [3][4] - The focus on group dining and social occasions has led to a significant rise in large-party reservations, contributing positively to third-quarter performance [3] Menu and Beverage Innovations - The relaunch of the pizza menu is expected to reinvigorate a core category and enhance brand value, with early tests showing positive results in traffic and check averages [4] - The broader beverage strategy, featuring new craft pours and shareable samplers, is designed to increase guest engagement and spending opportunities [4] Sales Projections - Comparable restaurant sales are projected to grow by 1.9% year-over-year, with average weekly sales expected to rise by 2% in the third quarter [5] Challenges - Earnings may face pressure due to margin compression linked to a value-heavy mix shift, as increased traffic from PMD and late-night channels often results in lower average checks [6] - Ongoing food cost inflation, particularly in beef and seafood, remains a challenge, although some categories like wings have seen easing [6] - Increased marketing and brand investment, while beneficial for sales, also raises operating expenses [7] - External factors such as tariffs and higher labor costs may negatively impact profitability, with total costs and expenses expected to rise by 2% to $334.8 million for the quarter [7] Earnings Prediction - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for BJRI, as it lacks a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank [10] - The Earnings ESP for BJRI stands at -233.33%, and it currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [10]

Summary of BJ's Restaurants FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: BJ's Restaurants (NasdaqGS: BJRI) - **Date of Conference**: September 10, 2025 Key Points Business Strategy and Performance - The CEO, Lyle Tick, emphasized the focus on strengthening the foundations of the business over the past year, aiming for a more consistent and sustainable operation [6][7] - The Pizookie Meal Deal, priced at $13, has become a significant traffic driver, accounting for approximately 15% of weekly business and nearly 20% on specific weekdays [10] - The company is exploring ways to evolve the Pizookie Meal Deal, including potential upgrades and new menu items [12][14] Menu Innovations - The company is revamping its pizza offerings, which are considered a core platform. The new pizza will launch in November, featuring a complete overhaul of the crust and ingredients to enhance quality [20][29] - The focus areas for the menu include pizza, Pizzookies, craft beverages, and shareables, with plans to streamline offerings by reducing the number of SKUs [31][32] - Seasonal items and customer feedback are being integrated into the menu strategy to keep offerings fresh and relevant [33] Operational Improvements - The company has implemented an Activity-Based Labor Model (ABLM) to optimize labor costs and improve guest satisfaction, with plans to expand this model to 20% of restaurants [38][40] - Operational metrics have shown improvement, with a focus on reducing errors in food preparation and order processing, leading to a double-digit decrease in food and beverage comps [36][37] Financial Outlook - Current store-level margins are projected to be in the mid-15% range, with potential for upside as operational efficiencies improve [43][44] - The CEO indicated that the focus is on growing sales and profit dollars rather than hitting specific percentage margin goals [45] Marketing Strategy - The marketing team has been effective in driving traffic through targeted campaigns, particularly around the Pizookie Meal Deal and new product launches [46][47] - Future marketing efforts will focus on building a consistent presence in social and influencer marketing, rather than competing on share of voice with larger brands [49] Store Development - The company is working on prototype stores to ensure that physical spaces reflect the brand's DNA and are adaptable to different market needs [53][55] - There is a focus on right-sizing stores based on market demand, with successful smaller footprint locations being identified [56] Off-Premise Business - The off-premise segment is seen as a growth opportunity, with plans to improve operational efficiency and menu offerings to better serve this channel starting in 2026 [58][60] Additional Insights - The company is committed to culinary excellence, particularly in pizza preparation, which has been a focus of employee training and operational standards [27] - The CEO expressed excitement about the potential for new product introductions and seasonal offerings to enhance customer engagement [33][59]