Economic Outlook - The risk of a U.S. recession has increased, with estimates for a recession in 2025 or within the next year ranging from 40% to 60% according to various Wall Street firms and economists [3][4][21] - Goldman Sachs raised its one-year recession-risk probability to 45% from 35%, while JPMorgan set the odds at 60% [3][4] Stock Performance During Recessions - Defensive stocks, which typically pay dividends, are expected to perform better during economic downturns [5] - Categories of stocks that tend to hold up well include consumer staples, utilities, healthcare, and discount retailers [7][8] Historical Context - The Great Recession lasted from December 2007 to May 2009, with the S&P 500 index dropping 35.6% during this period [10] - Stocks that performed well during the Great Recession include Netflix, iShares Gold Trust ETF, J&J Snack Foods, Walmart, and McDonald's, with Netflix showing a return of 70.7% [12][15] Specific Stock Insights - Gold mining stocks and ETFs, such as Newmont and iShares Gold Trust, are seen as potential safe havens during recessions [17] - "Small indulgence stocks," like Netflix and Hershey, may see continued consumer spending even in downturns [18] - Utility stocks, such as American Water Works and NextEra Energy, have shown strong long-term performance, challenging the notion that they are merely "widow and orphan stocks" [19] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to review their stock portfolios to enhance recession resistance while remaining invested in the market [21][22] - Long-term investors should avoid drastic changes to their portfolios, as timing the market can be challenging [23]

Core Insights - Helen of Troy Limited (HELE) experienced a 12% decline in share price after reporting disappointing fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with both top and bottom lines decreasing year over year and earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were $2.33, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.34, and down 4.9% from $2.45 in the previous year, attributed to lower adjusted operating income and higher interest expenses [4] - Net sales reached $485.9 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $480 million, but down 0.7% from $489.2 million year-over-year, primarily due to a 4.9% decline in Organic business sales [4] - The consolidated gross profit margin contracted by 40 basis points to 48.6%, influenced by a less favorable product mix and customer mix, partially offset by lower inventory obsolescence and reduced commodity costs [5] - The adjusted operating income fell 9.9% to $75 million, with the adjusted operating margin decreasing by 160 basis points to 15.4% [7] Segment Performance - In the Home & Outdoor segment, net sales declined 1.6% to $219.8 million, mainly due to decreased sales in insulated beverageware amid competitive pressure and weaker consumer demand [8] - The Beauty & Wellness segment saw a slight increase in net sales by 0.1% to $266.1 million, driven by the acquisition of Olive & June, although Organic business sales dropped by 8% [10] Strategic Outlook - The company is not providing a fiscal 2026 outlook due to global tariff policy changes and associated uncertainties, but is focusing on diversifying production outside of China to reduce tariff-related costs to under 20% by the end of fiscal 2026 [2] - Efforts are being made to preserve margins, reduce debt, and strengthen cash flow to navigate the dynamic environment [3] Financial Position - As of the end of fiscal 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $18.9 million and total debt of $916.9 million, with net cash provided by operating activities at $113.2 million and free cash flow at $83.1 million [12]