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Should You Hold on to RDDT Despite the Stock's 39% YTD Decline?
ZACKS· 2025-05-23 18:58
Core Viewpoint - Reddit's shares have significantly underperformed in 2023, dropping 38.8%, compared to a 2.6% decline in the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector and a 5.4% increase in the Zacks Internet - Software industry [1][2] Performance Analysis - Reddit's advertising revenues surged 61% year over year to $358.6 million in Q1 2025, driven by higher user engagement and AI initiatives [4] - For Q2 2025, Reddit anticipates revenues between $410 million and $430 million, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $426.12 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 51.55% [12] Competitive Landscape - Reddit faces stiff competition from Alphabet and Snap, both of which are expanding their advertising capabilities in the digital ad market [13] - Snap's new features, such as Snap School sponsorships and Snap Pixel, are enhancing its advertising offerings, posing challenges to Reddit's market position [14][15] Strategic Developments - Reddit is diversifying its advertising solutions, including the launch of Dynamic Product Ads, which aim to deliver personalized ads and improve Return on Ad Spend [5] - The company has enhanced its partnership with Integral Ad Science to provide advertisers with better measurement capabilities and transparency [8][9] Valuation Concerns - Reddit's stock is currently considered overvalued, with a trailing 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 8.82, compared to the sector average of 6.10 [17] Conclusion - Despite Reddit's expanding advertising business and improved user experience, intense competition and ongoing tariff uncertainties present significant challenges [19]
Reddit Stock Before Q1 Earnings: A Smart Move or Risky Investment?
ZACKS· 2025-04-29 20:05
Core Viewpoint - Reddit (RDDT) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results with projected revenues between $360 million and $370 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 48% to 52% [1]. Revenue and Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is $372.09 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 53.15% [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings is 3 cents per share, which has increased by a penny in the past 30 days [1][2]. Performance Influencing Factors - Reddit's first-quarter performance is anticipated to benefit from the expansion of its advertising business, increased user engagement, and growing artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives [3]. - The advertising business is experiencing strong growth across various objectives, channels, verticals, and geographies, with solid growth expected from mid-market and SMB customers [4]. AI and Automation Investments - The company is heavily investing in automation and AI to enhance ad performance and user experience, including features like the AI-powered Reddit Answers tool [5]. - Improvements in Reddit's Ads Manager and the use of Machine Learning (ML) optimization are expected to enhance the overall ad experience [5][6]. International Revenue Growth - International ad revenue rose 77% year-over-year in Q4 2024, with continued strong growth expected from the U.K. and EMEA regions [7]. Stock Performance and Valuation - RDDT shares have declined 25.7% year-to-date, underperforming the Zacks Computer & Technology sector and the Zacks Internet - Software industry [10]. - The stock is trading at a premium with a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 11.26X compared to the industry average of 4.84X [8]. Competitive Landscape - Reddit's expanding partnerships, including collaborations with Alphabet (GOOGL) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), enhance its competitive position [14][15]. - However, the company faces intense competition from Snap (SNAP), which has been expanding its advertising capabilities [13][17]. Cost and Regulatory Challenges - Reddit anticipates slightly higher stock-based compensation costs in Q1 2025 due to increased employer taxes related to stock price volatility [18]. - Evolving European Union privacy regulations may also impact Reddit's advertising business internationally [19].
Reddit Stock Plunges 27% Year to Date: Should You Avoid RDDT for Now?
ZACKS· 2025-04-28 20:00
Core Viewpoint - Reddit (RDDT) shares have declined 26.5% year-to-date, underperforming the broader Zacks Computer & Technology sector's decline of 11% and the Zacks Internet - Software industry's rise of 5.8% [1] Group 1: Performance and Market Conditions - The underperformance of RDDT is attributed to a worsening macroeconomic environment following U.S. tariffs on trading partners, including China and Mexico, and intense competition from other social media platforms affecting user engagement and market share in advertising [2] - Reddit experienced volatility due to a periodic algorithm change by Google Search in Q4 2024, which affected traffic primarily for logged-out users [3] Group 2: Revenue and Growth Drivers - RDDT is benefiting from strong user growth, improved advertising performance across multiple channels, and significant investments in AI-driven tools and machine translation, with advertising accounting for 91.2% of Reddit's 2024 revenues totaling $1.3 billion [7] - The company's focus on diversifying its advertising solutions and enhancing ad efficiency has emerged as a critical growth driver [8] Group 3: Product Development and User Engagement - Reddit's expanding advertising product portfolio includes AI-powered tools like the Headline Generator and Reddit Pro Trends, which help businesses gain real-time insights and grow organically on the platform [9] - In March 2025, Reddit introduced tools to enhance user engagement, including a post-check to prevent rule violations and a post-recovery feature for retrieving removed content [10] Group 4: Partnerships and New Initiatives - Reddit's partnership with Alphabet (GOOGL) enhances content discovery and community engagement by providing access to Reddit's Data API, benefiting both companies [11] - In December 2024, Reddit announced testing of "Reddit Answers," an AI-powered chatbot that provides curated summaries and community recommendations [12] - In February 2025, Reddit partnered with Intercontinental Exchange to create data and analytics products for the financial industry, leveraging its extensive user-generated content [14] Group 5: Earnings Estimates and Competition - For Q1 2025, RDDT expects revenues between $360 million and $370 million, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $327.70 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 53.40% [15] - Despite RDDT's expanding advertising business, it faces stiff competition from Snap (SNAP), which is enhancing its advertising offerings with new formats like Sponsored AI Lenses and tools like Snap Pixel [16][17]