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中国风电行业-反内卷努力后细分领域回暖-China – Wind-Segment Turnaround after Anti-involution Effort
2025-09-26 02:29
Summary of the Conference Call on China's Wind Power Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **wind power industry in China**, highlighting a significant turnaround after a down-cycle from 2022 to 2024, attributed to self-regulation and robust demand [3][12][39]. Key Points Demand and Installation Forecasts - **Domestic demand** is expected to remain resilient during the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP), with forecasts of annual installations of **106GW for 2025**, **103GW for 2026**, and **105GW for 2027**, potentially reaching **~120GW per annum from 2028 to 2030**, including **15-20GW offshore annually** [4][12][45]. - Public tendering for wind projects was robust, with **21.5GW tendered** from June to August 2025, marking a **21% year-on-year increase** [13][45]. Industry Dynamics - The industry has achieved a **price and profitability turnaround** without significant government intervention, driven by: 1. **Increased demand** for wind installations, with a **79% year-on-year rise** in new installations in the first seven months of 2025 [40]. 2. **Recovery in bidding prices** for Wind Turbine Generators (WTG), with onshore prices rising **8%** and offshore prices **12%** in 2025 [52]. 3. **Supply chain consolidation** and improved quality focus among manufacturers due to past losses and accidents [15][41]. Investment Preferences - Preference for **key WTG component suppliers** and **submarine cable manufacturers** over WTG Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) due to better margin recovery prospects [5][14]. - **ZTT** is highlighted as a preferred investment due to its strong valuation and expected growth in submarine cable deliveries [20]. Company-Specific Insights - **Sinoma S&T** upgraded to Overweight (OW) with a price target of **Rmb48.2**, reflecting a **98.9% increase in net profit estimates for 2025** and **117.1% for 2026** due to recovery in gross profit margins across its business segments [19][21]. - **Ningbo Orient** remains OW despite a **39.4% reduction in net profit estimates for 2025**, with a price target of **Rmb69.63** [22][23]. - **Riyue** and **Goldwind** are maintained at Equal Weight (EW) with adjusted price targets reflecting lower profit forecasts due to rising costs and reduced sales expectations [24][25][29]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include **delays in offshore project approvals**, **competition affecting offshore WTG prices**, and **increased costs for outsourced machining** [16][24][29][37]. - The industry faces challenges from **overseas shipment growth slowing down** and **delayed revenue recognition** for key offshore projects [30][32]. Conclusion - The wind power industry in China is positioned for a strong recovery, driven by robust demand and improved pricing dynamics. Key players in the supply chain are expected to benefit from ongoing margin recovery and favorable market conditions, making them attractive investment opportunities in the near term [42][43].