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Netflix vs. Disney: Which Streaming Giant is a Stronger Stock Pick?
ZACKSยท 2025-04-15 20:00
Core Viewpoint - The competition between Netflix and Disney in the streaming market presents investors with a choice regarding which company offers a superior investment opportunity, with Netflix showing strong operational execution and Disney providing a more compelling valuation and diversified revenue streams [2][24]. Group 1: Netflix (NFLX) Analysis - Netflix achieved a record growth of 18.91 million paid net additions in Q4 2024, bringing its total subscriber base to 301.63 million [3]. - The company's Q4 revenue increased by 16% year-over-year, with operating income surging by 52%, and for the full year 2024, Netflix reported over $10 billion in operating income for the first time [4]. - Netflix's free cash flow reached approximately $7 billion in 2024, allowing for significant content investments and shareholder returns [4]. - Major content successes include "Squid Game" Season 2 and live programming events, which enhance viewer engagement [5]. - For 2025, Netflix forecasts revenues between $43.5 billion and $44.5 billion, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate of $44.42 billion, indicating a 13.89% year-over-year growth [7]. Group 2: Disney (DIS) Analysis - Disney's streaming service, including Disney+ and Hulu, reached 178 million subscribers, supported by its diverse business segments such as theatrical releases and theme parks [9]. - The theatrical business surpassed $5 billion in box office revenue in 2024, driven by successful films, which also contribute content to Disney+ [10]. - Disney+ is evolving with features like ESPN integration and new content offerings, enhancing its competitive edge against Netflix [11]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects fiscal 2025 revenues of $94.63 billion, reflecting a 3.58% year-over-year growth, with earnings expected to increase by 10.26% to $5.48 per share [13]. Group 3: Valuation and Performance Comparison - Disney's forward P/S ratio of 1.57X is significantly more attractive compared to Netflix's, indicating better relative value for investors [16]. - Over the past year, Netflix's stock surged by 50.8%, outperforming Disney and the broader market, with a five-year return of 112.1% and a ten-year return of 1,040.6% [19]. - Despite Netflix's stronger operating margins at 27%, Disney's comprehensive entertainment ecosystem offers unique long-term value creation opportunities [23]. - Disney is viewed as a stronger investment opportunity due to its attractive valuation, diverse revenue streams, and growth potential beyond streaming [24][25].