Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) has experienced a decline in comparable restaurant sales since early 2025, primarily due to a decrease in customer transactions, with a 2.3% decline in the first half of 2025 compared to a 9.1% growth in the same period last year, driven by a 3.7% drop in transactions [1][9] Sales Performance - The company is facing challenges in maintaining comparable sales despite higher average checks and menu price increases [2] - To combat declining sales, Chipotle is enhancing its loyalty program, which has grown to approximately 20 million members as of June 30, 2025, following various engagement initiatives [2][3] Loyalty Program Initiatives - Chipotle has implemented several strategies to boost its loyalty program, including enrollment campaigns and a gamified experience called "Summer of Extras," which increased digital sign-ups by 14% year-over-year [3] - A new program targeting college students is planned for fall 2025 to further engage customers and increase sales [3][4] Competitive Landscape - Chipotle's loyalty program faces significant competition from major players like McDonald's and Starbucks, which have established robust loyalty initiatives [5] - McDonald's loyalty program has over 12 million sign-ups, while Starbucks Rewards boasts nearly 34 million active members, significantly impacting Chipotle's market position [6][7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Chipotle's stock has declined by 15.7% over the past three months, underperforming compared to the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry and the S&P 500 index [8][9] - The stock is currently trading at a premium with a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 4.41 [11] Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for Chipotle remain unchanged at $1.21 for 2025 and $1.42 for 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth of 8% and 17.6%, respectively [12][13]