Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: December 26, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Group 2: Sugar Market Core View - Short - term basis repair is completed, and further upward movement is difficult. With multiple factors affecting the market, the sugar price is under pressure to fall [3] Price and Spread Data - Sugar futures: SR01 closed at 5294 with a daily decline of 1.3% and a weekly increase of 2.26%; SR03 closed at 5287 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a weekly increase of 3.46%; etc [4] - Sugar basis: On December 25, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was - 24 with a daily increase of 28 and a weekly decrease of 102; etc [9] - Import price: On December 26, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4157 with a daily increase of 15 and a weekly increase of 75; the out - of - quota price was 5270 with a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 98; etc [12] Group 3: Cotton Market Core View - In the short term, there is still hedging pressure on cotton prices to be digested. In the long term, if the supply expectation remains unchanged, the cotton supply - demand in the new year may be tight, and cotton prices have room to rise. Attention should be paid to downstream orders before the holiday [14] Price and Spread Data - Cotton and cotton yarn futures: Cotton01 closed at 14565 with an increase of 270 (1.89%); Cotton05 closed at 14535 with an increase of 280 (1.96%); etc [15] - Cotton and cotton yarn spreads: The cotton basis was 782 with a daily decrease of 242; the spread of cotton01 - 05 was 30 with a daily decrease of 10; etc [15] Group 4: Apple Market Core View - The overall trading of late Fuji inventory is slow, and transactions are mostly on - demand. Merchants' restocking is temporarily over [18] Price and Spread Data - Apple futures: AP01 closed at 9694 with a daily increase of 0.03% and a weekly increase of 1.14%; AP03 closed at 9360 with a daily increase of 0.61% and a weekly increase of 0.8%; etc [19] - Apple spreads: The spread of AP01 - 05 was 483 with a daily increase of 2.11% and a weekly increase of 16.39%; etc [19] Group 5: Red Date Market Core View - In the short term, red date prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long term, the overall supply - demand of red dates in the new year in China is loose, and prices will still be under pressure [26] Price and Spread Data - Red date futures spreads: The spread of red date futures (01 - 05) shows certain trends in different years; etc [27]

Core Insights - The agricultural commodities market is experiencing significant volatility, with various soft commodities showing contrasting trends in prices and performance [2][12][13] Sugar Market - Nearby ICE sugar futures settled Q3 at 16.10 cents per pound, reflecting a bearish trend since the November 2023 high of 28.14 cents per pound [1] - World sugar futures 11 on the Intercontinental Exchange increased by 4% in Q3 but faced a 16.41% decline over the first nine months of 2025 [1] Coffee Market - Arabica coffee futures surged by 22.2% in Q3 due to concerns over Brazilian coffee crops, with prices reaching $3.7485 per pound on September 30, 2025, and $4.0875 per pound in mid-October [4][5] - Coffee futures were the best-performing soft commodities in Q3 and since the end of 2024, with a 17.23% increase over the first nine months of 2025 [5] Cocoa Market - Cocoa futures experienced a significant decline of 27.86% in Q3 after reaching record highs of $12,931 per ton in late 2024, marking a 42.19% drop over the first nine months of 2025 [6][7] - Cocoa closed Q3 at $6,749 per metric ton and fell below $5,900 in mid-October 2025, indicating a bearish trend likely due to commodity cyclicality [7] Cotton and FCOJ Markets - Cotton futures decreased by only 0.77% in Q3 and were 3.85% lower than the 2024 closing price at the end of September 2025, settling at 65.77 cents per pound [8][9] - Frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) futures gained 11.90% in Q3 but were the worst-performing soft commodity over the first three quarters, with a 51.04% decline [10][11] Market Outlook - The outlook for Q4 suggests that while coffee prices remain elevated, cocoa and FCOJ are in bearish trends, with sugar and cotton also experiencing downward pressure but at levels where commodity cyclicality may provide support [12] - The soft commodities sector has shifted from being a leader in 2024 to a laggard in 2025, with expectations of volatility influenced by weather, crop diseases, trade issues, and geopolitics [13]