| | | | T TrendForce | | --- | | 应用别 | प्तचे | 分辨率 | 出货型态 | | | 液晶显示屏价格下旬预测 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (E | 를 | 均价 | 与前月差异(% | | | 电视 | een M | 3840x2160 | Open-Cell | I ea | 178 | 174 | -2.0 | -1.1% | | | SE .. M | 3840x2160 | Open-Cell | II d | 127 | 124 | -2.0 | -1.6% | | | 43"W | 1920x1080 | Open-Cell | 62 | રિ | 64 | -1.0 | -1.5% | | | 32"W | 1366x768 | Open-Cell | 34.0 | 36.0 | 35.0 | -1.0 | -2.8% | | 桌上显示器 | 27"W (IPS) | 1920x1080 | LED | 57.6 | ર્સ જ | 63 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tightening of national subsidy policies in June has negatively impacted domestic market demand expectations, leading to a general decline in panel prices. However, the reintroduction of subsidies in July may support market confidence, although weakened policy benefits and exhausted consumer potential could limit demand recovery in the second half of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - In June, the reduction or suspension of national subsidy policies in several provinces affected sales expectations for the 618 shopping festival, resulting in a general decline in panel prices [3][4]. - The domestic market demand is closely linked to the "old-for-new" subsidy policy, which has shown positive year-on-year growth in retail sales of home appliances since its implementation [3]. - The third batch of 138 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" policy is expected to be released in mid-July, potentially boosting demand in the second half of the year [3][4]. Group 2: Price Trends - Overall panel prices are expected to continue declining in July, with significant price drops for large-sized panels. The anticipated price ranges for mainstream panels from 32" to 85" are $32, $65, $92, $118, $169, $227, and $307, respectively, indicating a decrease of $1 to $3 from June prices [2][5]. - The supply side is adjusting production rates to stabilize panel prices, with the average utilization rate for G8.5 production lines around 73% in Q2, down approximately 4 percentage points from the previous quarter [4]. Group 3: External Market Influences - The expiration of the tariff buffer period for imports from China and Southeast Asia may lead to a preemptive increase in procurement demand, which could provide short-term support for panel prices [4]. - However, the ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty regarding tariffs are expected to negatively impact long-term panel demand and pricing [4].

" 今年6月，多地国补政策收紧或影响国内市场需求预期，叠加面板供应维持宽松，致使面板价格普遍下 行 。 进 入 7 月 ， 国 补 重 启 或 对 市 场 信 心 形 成 支 撑 ， 然 政 策 红 利 减 弱 及 消 费 潜 力 透 支 或 制 约 下 半 年 需 求 释 放；同时关税窗口期临近尾声，海外市场采购需求提前或延续供应宽松格局。预计今年7月整体面板价格 持续下行。 " | | | | Size & Resolution | | | Technology | Jun.25' | Jul.25'(E) | Differ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 32" | 60Hz | HD | LCD | $33.0 | $32.0 | -$1.0 | | 43 " | 60Hz | FHD | LCD | $66.0 | $65.0 | -$1.0 | | 50" | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $94.0 | $92.0 | -$2.0 | | 55" | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $120.0 | $118.0 | -$ ...

CINNO Research发文称，今年5月面板供需关系维持平衡状态，面板价格持续横盘，预计32"至85"主流面板价格与今年4月价格相比基本持平，分别为35美 元、67美元、97美元、121美元、173美元、231美元和312美元。随着面板厂产能动态优化能力持续提升，进一步巩固供需两端动态平衡格局，面板价格波动 收窄预期增强，预计二季度整体价格或将呈现平缓的运行态势。 | | Size & Resolution | | Technology | Apr.25' | May.25'(E) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 32" | 60Hz 60Hz | | LCD | $35.0 | $35.0 | | 43" | 60Hz | FHD | LCD | $67.0 | $67.0 | | 50" | 60Hz | UD UD | LCD | $97.0 | $97.0 | | રે રે" | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $121.0 | $121.0 | | ୧୮." | 60Hz | ud u | LCD | $173.0 | $173.0 | ...

" 今年4月，美国关税政策虽迎来过渡期以及部分中国产品关税豁免声明，但由于今年一季度品牌 商库存水位居高，后期备货策略转为保守，叠加"国补"政策效应逐渐减弱，面板需求开始转弱。 进入5月后需求下滑，面板厂加强控产以稳价，预计二季度整体面板价格将平稳运行。" CINNO Research 简评 今年4月，美国关税战迎来过渡期和美对华部分电子消费品的《特定产品的互惠关税豁免》声明， 海外TV市场提前备货节奏放缓，采购策略从激进转为稳健。因一季度部分需求提前释放以及"国 01 补"政策边际效应显现，国内市场整体需求开始回落，面板价格周期由扩张期转入平台期，集体涨 幅持续收窄至0。进入5月，前期策略性备货促使品牌商库存水位渐涨，导致后期备货积极性不 足，需求延续4月转冷态势。面板供应商在五一假期加大控产力度，下调稼动率以稳定价格，预计 5月面板价格进入平稳运行状态。 02 从需求侧来看，国内市场受消费品以旧换新加力扩围政策带动，国家统计局数据显示，2025年一 季 度 限 额 以 上 家 电 类 商 品 零 售 额 增 长 19.3% ， 其 中 3 月 单 月 增 长 35.1% 。 此 外 ， 据 CINNO R ...

01 今年3月，美国关税政策的预期与正式执行关税前的实际操作为品牌商赢得海外市场备货缓冲期； 在"以旧换新"补贴政策的支持下，国内市场各品牌在AWE展会中积极推出今年春季新品机型并为 618大促提前备货，进一步推动TV市场短期需求回升。进入4月，美对华关税战升级且前期需求透 支，终端采购动力不足，导致库存水位偏高。在需求转弱的情况下，部分面板厂为稳定价格可能 会考虑控产。 " 今 年 3 月 ， 在 美 国 关 税 政 策 频 繁 变 动 、 国 内 品 牌 春 季 新 品 集 中 放 量 及 " 以 旧 换 新 " 政 策 带 动 下 ， 短期需求仍维持高位，因面板供应端持续高稼动出货，面板价格涨幅开始收窄。进入4月，随着二 季度部分需求提前释放叠加美对华关税贸易战升级，面板供需进入弱平衡状态，预计4月面板价格 将出现拐点。" | | | | | Worldwide TV Display Panel Price Dynamic | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Size & Resolution | | | Technology | Ma ...

| 发表日期: | 2025.03.20 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (单位:美元/片) | | | | | | | 集 郭 容 语 | | | 应用別 | ਮਿਕੇ | 分辨率 | 出货型态 | | | 液晶显示屏价格 | | | | | | | | (FE | 를 | 均价 | 与前月差异(%) | | | 电视 | ee .. M | 3840x2160 | Open-Cell | 173 | 182 | 177 | 1.0 | 0.6% | | | ER .. M | 3840x2160 | Open-Cell | 122 | 130 | 127 | 1.0 | 0.8% | | | 43"W | 1920x1080 | Open-Cell | 64 | 67 | 66 | 1.0 | 1.5% | | | 32' W | 1366x768 | Open-Cell | 35.0 | 37.0 | 36.0 | 0.5 | 1.4% | | 桌上显示器 | 27"W (IPS) | 1 ...

"今年2月，美国对墨西哥上调关税政策尚未落地、国内"以旧换新"政策的延续促使品牌采购策略 维持稳健，市场需求在短期内持续强劲，面板价格全线上调；进入3月，国内市场品牌为新品发布 及618活动提前备货，短期需求维持高位，随着美对墨上调25%关税且进一步对华加征10%的关 税政策落地，国外市场备货节奏暂缓，预计3月面板价格涨幅收窄。 " | | Size & Resolution | | Technology | Feb.25' | Mar.25'(E) | Differ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 32" | 60Hz | HD | LCD | $34.0 | $35.0 | $1.0 | | 43" | 60Hz | FHD | LCD | $66.0 | $67.0 | $1.0 | | 50" | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $95.0 | $96.0 | $1.0 | | રે તે " | 60Hz | UD | LCD | $120.0 | $ 121.0 | $1.0 | | ୧୧" | 60Hz | UD | LCD | ...

| | | | 应用别 | 尺寸 | 分辨率 | 出货型态 | | | 液晶显示屏价格下旬预测 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | TEE | 를 | म्येश | 与前月差异(%) | | | 电视 | 65" M | 3840x2160 | Open-Cell | 173 | 182 | 177 | 1.0 | 0.6% | | | SE...W | 3840x2160 | Open-Cell | 122 | 130 | 127 | 1.0 | 0.8% | | | 43"W | 1920x1080 | Open-Cell | રવ | 67 | દર | 1.0 | 1.5% | | | 32"W | 1366x768 | Open-Cell | 35.0 | 37.0 | 36.0 | 0.5 | 1.4% | | 桌上显示器 | 27"W (IPS) | 1920x1080 | LED | 57.2 | 65.3 | 62.7 | 0.1 | 0.2% | | | 23.8"W (IPS) ...