Target (TGT) Q2 2026 Earnings Call August 20, 2025 08:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsJohn Hulbert - Director - Investor CommunicationsBrian Cornell - Chair & CEOMichael Fiddelke - EVP, Incoming CEO & COORick Gomez - EVP & CCOJim Lee - EVP & CFOKate McShane - Managing DirectorCorey Tarlowe - SVP - Equity ResearchJoseph Feldman - Senior MD & Assistant Director - ResearchSimeon Gutman - Managing DirectorEdward Kelly - MD - Equity ResearchConference Call ParticipantsMichael Lasser - Equity Research Analyst - Hard ...

Core Insights - Target Corporation is set to release its second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on August 20, with projected revenues of $24.91 billion, reflecting a 2.1% decline year-over-year, and earnings expected at $2.09 per share, indicating an 18.7% drop from the previous year [1][7]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues is $24.91 billion, down 2.1% from the same period last year [1][7]. - Earnings per share are projected at $2.09, a decrease of 18.7% compared to the year-ago quarter [1][7]. - The company has a trailing four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 3.2%, with the last quarter's earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 19.8% [2]. Earnings Estimates - Current quarter earnings estimate stands at $2.09, with a year-over-year growth estimate of -18.68% [3]. - The number of estimates for the current quarter is 13, with a high estimate of $2.48 and a low estimate of $1.90 [3]. - Comparable sales are expected to decrease by 3.3%, with average transaction amounts and the number of transactions anticipated to drop by 1.3% and 2%, respectively [11]. Strategic Initiatives - Target's synergistic approach, including a strong brand presence and expanding e-commerce capabilities, is expected to support second-quarter performance [8]. - Investments in AI-driven innovation and operational efficiencies through supply-chain improvements are anticipated to bolster results [8]. - Ongoing digitization efforts, such as same-day delivery and curbside pickup, are likely to enhance customer engagement and digital penetration [9]. Challenges - Target faces challenges with weakening store traffic and declining comparable sales, indicating softer consumer engagement in physical retail [10]. - Margin pressures from markdown activities, rising digital fulfillment expenses, and tariff exposure are likely to impact profitability [10].

Core Insights - Target will discontinue its price-matching policy with competitors like Walmart and Amazon starting July 28, as shoppers primarily price match Target rather than other retailers [2][3] - The decision comes amid a significant turnaround effort by Target due to declining sales and foot traffic, as well as challenges from tariffs and consumer backlash [4][5] - The retail environment is currently characterized by geopolitical challenges, U.S. tariffs, and a cost-conscious consumer, raising questions about the sustainability of retail strategies [5][6] Company Strategy - Target aims to provide consumers with value through everyday low prices, quality-focused owned brands, and a membership program called Target Circle [3] - The company has previously allowed price matching on identical items from Amazon and Walmart, with requests accepted at the time of purchase or within 14 days [3] - The discontinuation of the price-matching policy may reflect a shift in strategy as Target faces declining sales and stock performance [8] Industry Context - The summer retail season is critical, with major events like Amazon's Prime Day and Walmart+ Week highlighting brand agility and pricing power [5][6] - Consumers are currently more focused on essential items priced under $20, indicating a shift in spending behavior [6] - Walmart has responded to market conditions by emphasizing "everyday low prices" and maintaining competitive pricing on school supplies [7]

Core Insights - Target Corporation is launching Target Circle Week from July 6-12, featuring significant discounts and exclusive deals for members of its Target Circle program [1][2] - The event aims to provide savings on back-to-school essentials and summer items, with discounts of up to 50% across various categories [1][2] - Target Circle 360 members receive early access to deals starting July 5, along with additional benefits such as discounts and free same-day delivery [3][4] Discounts and Offers - Target Circle Week includes daily "Deal of the Day" offerings, with three unique deals available each day, including a 10% discount on Target GiftCards [1][2] - Key discounts for the event include 50% off a one-year membership for teachers and students, 40% off tech and gaming, and various discounts on school supplies, clothing, and home essentials [4][5] - Additional promotions include buy two, get one free on books and music, and spend $40, save $10 on toys [4][5] Membership Benefits - Target Circle 360 members enjoy exclusive early access to deals, with a $50 discount on their first same-day delivery order for new sign-ups [3][4] - The program offers year-round benefits, including personalized savings, exclusive discounts, and additional savings on everyday purchases [9] - Members can stack a one-time 20% off storewide discount with Target Circle Week deals for further savings [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q1 net sales decreased by 2.8%, with a comparable sales decline of 3.8% partially offset by new store sales and double-digit growth in non-merchandise sales [45] - First quarter GAAP EPS was $2.27, including a $0.97 benefit from litigation settlements, while adjusted EPS was $1.30 compared to $2.03 last year [45][46] - Gross margin rate for Q1 was 28.2%, about 60 basis points lower than last year, impacted by higher markdowns and digital fulfillment costs [46] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company saw mid-single-digit growth in its first-party digital business, with a 36% increase in same-day delivery [13] - Drive Up service accounted for nearly half of total digital sales, indicating strong performance in digital channels [13] - The Kate Spade partnership was highlighted as the most successful designer collaboration in over a decade, showcasing the strength of Target's brand and product offerings [15][24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Target held or gained market share in 15 out of 35 divisions tracked, with notable gains in apparel categories and seasonal merchandise [21] - The company experienced a decline in traffic of 2.4% and a decrease in average ticket size of 1.4% during Q1 [45] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The formation of an enterprise acceleration office aims to enhance adaptability, innovation, and growth within the company [10][42] - Target is focusing on maintaining price competitiveness while navigating tariff impacts, leveraging its scale and supplier relationships [11][72] - The company plans to introduce over 10,000 new items for the summer season, emphasizing affordability and value [9][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging environment, including declining consumer confidence and inflationary pressures affecting discretionary spending [8][20] - The company expects current top-line pressures to persist in the near term but remains confident in its long-term growth strategy [12][56] - Management emphasized the importance of retail fundamentals and enhancing the in-store experience to drive traffic and sales [78] Other Important Information - Target's commitment to community engagement includes donating 5% of profits and encouraging team volunteerism [17] - The company is focused on improving inventory reliability and reducing shrink, with inventory levels up 11% year-over-year [33][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for comps and gross margin in the back half of the year - Management expects low single-digit declines for the balance of the year, with inventory adjustment costs primarily in the first half [63] Question: Clarification on shrink recovery - Management indicated that they expect to recover the majority of shrink headwinds experienced in previous years [66] Question: Strategies to offset tariff impacts - Management discussed diversifying production countries and evolving product assortments to mitigate tariff effects [72][75] Question: In-store comp trends and traffic driving tactics - Management highlighted the focus on retail fundamentals, including inventory management and enhancing the in-store experience to drive traffic [78][79]

Core Insights - Target aims to increase revenue by $15 billion over the next five years, focusing on enhancing customer engagement through physical stores and digital platforms [1][5][11] Financial Performance - In Q4, comparable sales grew by 1.5%, while net sales decreased by 3.1% to $30.9 billion; digital comparable sales increased by 8.7% [3][9] - For the full year 2024, comparable sales rose by 0.1%, while net sales fell by 0.8% to $106.6 billion; traffic grew by 1.4% across both stores and digital channels [4][9] Digital Strategy - Target's growth strategy emphasizes investment in digital capabilities, integrating technology with in-store experiences to create a personalized shopping journey [4][6] - Digital sales now account for approximately 20% of Target's total volume, with significant traffic driven from social platforms [6][9] Customer Engagement - The company plans to leverage AI to identify trends and enhance the shopping experience, with over one-third of app users engaging while shopping in stores [7][9] - Target Circle membership has quadrupled over the past year, with members spending three times more than non-members; the goal is to triple membership in the next three years [7][8] Market Trends - Nearly 40% of consumers are now "Click-and-Mortar" shoppers, utilizing both digital and physical channels, with 25% using digital assistance while in-store [10] - The company aims to ensure its products are discoverable and essential to consumers' daily lives, refining its approach to retail to drive engagement and loyalty [11][12]