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MP vs. LYSDY: Which Non-China Rare-Earth Stock Has More Upside?
ZACKSยท 2025-10-23 16:11
Core Insights - MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths Limited are key players in the global rare earth supply chain, essential for high-performance magnets in EVs, defense, and high-tech applications. The renewed investor interest in rare earth stocks is driven by U.S.-China tensions, with China controlling approximately 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing capacity. Both companies are positioned to support the West's efforts for critical mineral independence and reduce reliance on Chinese supply [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - MP Materials, based in Las Vegas, NV, is the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the U.S., covering the entire supply chain from mining to magnet manufacturing, with a market capitalization of $12.36 billion [3]. - Lynas, located in Perth, Australia, is valued at around $11.98 billion and is involved in the exploration, development, and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, MP Materials reported an 84% year-over-year revenue increase to $57.4 million, producing 597 metric tons of NdPr, a 119% increase from the previous year. REO production rose 45% to 13,145 metric tons [6][10]. - Lynas produced 6,558 tons of NdPr in fiscal 2025, a 16% year-over-year increase, while its revenues rose 20% to AUD 556.5 million ($362 million) due to increased NdPr production and sales [14]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - MP Materials secured a deal with the U.S. Department of Defense to develop a fully integrated domestic rare earth magnet supply chain, which includes equity investments and loan financing [8]. - Lynas achieved its first commercial production of Heavy Rare Earths outside China in decades, marking a significant milestone in its operations [10][13]. Group 4: Growth Initiatives - MP Materials is set to construct a second domestic magnet manufacturing facility, increasing U.S. rare earth magnet manufacturing capacity to 10,000 metric tons [9]. - Lynas has completed its Lynas 2025 growth initiative, focusing on increased capacity and efficiency, and is now embarking on its "Towards 2030" strategy to optimize performance and expand its resource base [15][16]. Group 5: Market Performance and Valuation - Over the past three months, MP Materials stock gained 13.4%, while Lynas saw a 63.5% increase [19]. - MP Materials trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 20.49X, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.45X, while Lynas trades at 19.44X, also above the industry average [20]. Group 6: Investment Outlook - MP Materials is experiencing rising costs that may pressure earnings, with expectations of a full-year loss, while Lynas is better positioned with strong growth projections and upward estimate revisions [23]. - Lynas is viewed as a more compelling investment opportunity due to its recent performance and favorable valuation, currently holding a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), compared to MP Materials' Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) [24].