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P&G Holds Its Premium As Analysts Cite Durable Growth Beyond Near-Term Tariff Hits
Benzingaยท 2025-10-27 19:31
Core Insights - Procter & Gamble (P&G) exceeded expectations in organic sales and margins for Q1 of fiscal 2026, maintaining its full-year revenue and EPS guidance unchanged [1] - Bank of America analysts reaffirmed a Buy rating and increased the price target to $175, citing consistent execution and innovation-driven market share gains despite a slowdown in consumption [1][10] Consumption Trends - Consumption trends for P&G softened during the quarter, decreasing from approximately 2.4% to a range of 1.8-1.9%, with near-term growth projected between 1.5% and 2% [2] Competitive Response - In response to increased competitive promotions, P&G is focusing on innovation-led growth, launching new products such as Tide liquid and Tide EVO in laundry care, and Pampers and Luvs in baby care [3] Market Share Performance - Six out of P&G's seven regions either maintained or expanded market share, with a notable 7% gain in Latin America; Europe remained stable, while Asia Pacific and the Middle East experienced slight declines [4] Tariff and Cost Expectations - P&G's expected tariff-related costs have been revised to $500 million, down from $750 million previously, due to material exclusions and adjusted sourcing strategies [5] Growth Outlook - The second quarter of 2026 is anticipated to be the weakest growth period of the year, but management expects a rebound in the second half, driven by ongoing innovation and supply chain improvements [6] Financial Estimates - Bank of America has slightly increased its EPS estimates for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to $7.00, $7.35, and $7.75, respectively, reflecting the positive impact of the first-quarter performance [8] - The brokerage forecasts second-quarter organic sales growth of 0.5%, down from a previous estimate of 1.5%, and a 2026 organic growth of 1.6%, reduced from 2% [9] Valuation and Price Target - Bank of America maintains a Buy rating on P&G with a price target of $175, based on a 24.5x CY26E P/E multiple, reflecting a 20% valuation premium for household and personal care peers due to P&G's long-term growth potential [10]