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ATI(ATI) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-05-01 12:30
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues grew 10% year over year, exceeding $1,100,000,000 for the quarter [6][20] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $195,000,000, surpassing the top end of guidance by $15,000,000 [6][20] - Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.72, beating the guidance range of $0.55 to $0.61 [6][20] - Free cash flow usage was $143,000,000, lower than Q1 2024 and favorable to 2025 estimates [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aerospace and Defense (A&D) represented 66% of total revenue in Q1, with defense sales growing 11% year over year [18][16] - Commercial jet engine sales grew 35% year over year, accounting for 37% of total Q1 revenue [13][14] - Airframe business represented 18% of Q1 revenue, with strong demand for titanium capabilities [15] - HPMC margins increased by 400 basis points year over year, driven by A&D core strength [21][22] - AANS margins were down 140 basis points sequentially but up 90 basis points year over year [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Industrial markets, representing approximately 20% of total business, are seeing some customers adopt a wait-and-see approach [12] - Tariffs announced in 2025 represent approximately $50,000,000 in annual cost exposure prior to offsets [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on high-value A&D applications, with a strategic evolution validated by a reclassification to aerospace and defense [18] - Plans to repurchase up to $250,000,000 in shares in Q2, reflecting confidence in current share price [9][31] - The company is leveraging a diversified global supply chain to manage costs effectively amid trade uncertainties [10][54] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains confident in A&D demand, with robust backlogs and no cancellations in engine material orders [12][57] - The company anticipates Q2 results to mirror Q1, with a full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of $800,000,000 to $840,000,000 [26][29] - Management acknowledges potential risks in industrial markets but expects A&D sales to grow 12% to 14% in 2025 [28][29] Other Important Information - A new five-year agreement with Airbus worth approximately $1,000,000,000 was signed, significantly increasing participation [87][114] - The company has secured long-term contracts for critical alloys, ensuring supply stability into the next decade [116][120] Q&A Session Summary Question: Contribution of aftermarket or MRO to A&D growth - Management noted strong MRO demand running at 40% to 50%, with expectations to double revenue from GTF work in 2025 [39][40] Question: Impact of U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal on sourcing - Management indicated potential positive long-term impacts on titanium sponge supply but noted no immediate effects [44][46] Question: Pricing trends in HPMC - Pricing for titanium and nickel increased by 6% to 7% year over year, with long-term agreements allowing for sustained price increases [51][52] Question: Tariff impact and offsets - Management discussed various levers to manage tariff impacts, including a diversified supply chain and contract mechanisms to pass through costs [53][55] Question: Margin expectations amid industrial market declines - Management expects AANS margins to remain in the mid-teens despite potential declines in industrial sales [103][104] Question: Financial impact of the new labor contract - The labor contract was in line with expectations and is built into guidance, ensuring support for aerospace customers [105][106] Question: Size of the new Airbus contract relative to past business - The new contract is expected to double participation with Airbus compared to previous years [114][115] Question: Duration and exclusivity of sole source alloys - Contracts for critical alloys extend into the middle of the next decade, with high barriers to entry for potential competitors [116][120]