Carrier Global FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Carrier Global (NYSE:CARR) - **Industry**: HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) and Transportation Refrigeration Equipment - **Event**: FY Conference held on November 12, 2025 Key Points and Arguments Company Strategy and Market Position - Carrier has established a focused and balanced portfolio aimed at sustained growth through leadership in products, aftermarket, and systems [4][5] - The company is a market leader in residential and commercial HVAC, with significant investments made post-spin to enhance product offerings and market share [5][6] - Carrier's data center revenues are projected to double to $1 billion this year, with a backlog extending into 2028, indicating strong future growth potential [6][10] Residential Business Insights - The residential HVAC market in the U.S. is estimated to have about 130 million installed units, with a historical replacement rate of approximately 6% annually [7][8] - Current estimates suggest a decline in replacement rates to about 7.5 million units for the year, with expectations of gradual recovery to historical norms over the next few years [9][10] - The company is focused on reducing field inventories by 30% to mitigate destocking headwinds, achieving a reduction of over 25% as of October [11][12] Market Dynamics and Challenges - Factors affecting the residential market include high interest rates, low existing home sales, and consumer reluctance to replace HVAC systems [20][21] - The company acknowledges that excess stocking levels from the previous year have contributed to current market challenges [19][20] - The residential replacement market is primarily driven by break-fix scenarios, with pent-up demand expected as consumers transition to new refrigerants [24][25] Pricing and Margin Outlook - Carrier's pricing environment remains robust, with overall pricing up double digits year-over-year, and plans for mid-single-digit price increases in residential HVAC for the next year [26][28] - The company anticipates carryover cost savings of at least $100 million next year, contributing positively to margins [29][42] Growth Projections - Carrier maintains a medium-term organic growth target of 6%-8%, supported by market share gains and product differentiation strategies [30][31] - The commercial HVAC segment is expected to grow significantly, particularly in data centers, which are projected to see a 20%-25% increase in activity next year [36][35] Capital Allocation and Share Repurchase - The company plans to focus on share repurchases, with an expected $3 billion allocated for this purpose in the current year, alongside funding for organic growth and dividends [43][45] - Carrier is not currently pursuing large-scale acquisitions, emphasizing a focus on execution and customer service [45] Additional Important Insights - The company is leveraging technology and data analytics to enhance forecasting and operational efficiency [21][22] - There is a strong emphasis on aftermarket growth through improved parts capture, service attachment, and modifications/upgrades [40][41] - Carrier's commitment to cost reduction while investing in growth positions it well for future recovery and market leadership [12][45]