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花旗:截至 2025 年 5 月 13 日的美国通胀图表集
花旗· 2025-05-16 06:25
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific securities Core Insights - Breakeven rates have increased, with 5-year breakevens rising by 5.4 basis points, 10-year breakevens by 5.5 basis points, and 30-year breakevens by 5 basis points for the week [1] - Real yields have also increased, with 5-year real yields up by 14.9 basis points, 10-year real yields by 9.8 basis points, and 30-year real yields by 5.3 basis points [1] Summary by Sections Breakeven and Real Yield Changes - Breakeven rates for various maturities have shown upward movement, indicating market expectations of inflation are rising [1] - Real yields have also increased, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment regarding future interest rates and inflation [1] Open and Closed Trades - The report details several open trades, including a long position in 10-year TIPS and a short position in 3-month to 10-year receivers, which started on January 5, 2024, with a current level of 2.05% and a loss of $549,000 [4] - Closed trades include a profitable position in the 3-year to 10-year inflation spread, which yielded a profit of $1,040,000 [4] Inflation Calendar - Important upcoming inflation data releases include the US CPI on June 11, 2025, and PPI on May 15, 2025, which are critical for assessing inflation trends [6] TIPS Relative Value - The report provides a detailed analysis of TIPS relative value, showing various maturities and their respective real yields, with some bonds identified as rich or cheap based on market adjustments [8][9] Current Market Levels - The report includes current market levels for TIPS, indicating real yields across different maturities, with the 10-year real yield at 2.00% [11]