The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday fell by -0.21%.  The dollar moved lower on Friday as a decline in the 10-year T-note yield to a 4-month low has weakened the dollar's interest rate differentials.  Losses in the dollar were limited on Friday due to stronger-than-expected US economic reports on Jan PPI, the Feb MNI Chicago PMI, and Dec construction spending.  Also, Friday's equity market slump boosted liquidity demand for the dollar. US Jan PPI final demand rose +0.5% m/m and +2.9% y/y, stronger than exp ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Thursday rose by +0.08%.  The dollar recovered from overnight losses on Thursday and turned higher after weekly US jobless claims rose less than expected, a sign of labor market strength.  The dollar extended its gains after a stock market slump boosted liquidity demand for the currency. The dollar initially moved lower on Thursday amid a stronger yuan, which rallied to a 2.75-year high.  Dovish comments from Chicago Fed President Alan Goolsbee also weighed on the dollar, as h ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up +0.18%.  The dollar recovered from overnight losses and turned higher after weekly US jobless claims rose less than expected, a sign of labor market strength.  The dollar extended its gains after a stock market slump boosted liquidity demand for the currency.  The dollar initially moved lower today amid a stronger yuan, which rallied to a 2.75-year high. US weekly initial unemployment claims rose by +4,000 to 212,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday fell by -0.16%.  The dollar moved lower on Wednesday amid a stronger yuan, which rallied to a 2.75-year high.   Also, comments on Tuesday evening by President Trump at the State of the Union address fueled trade uncertainty and weighed on the dollar, as he reiterated his resolve to impose trade tariffs.  In addition, strength in stocks on Wednesday reduced liquidity demand for the dollar. Losses in the dollar were limited amid weakness in the yen, which dropped to a ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.07%.  The dollar is slightly lower today amid a stronger yuan, which has rallied to a 2.75-year high against the dollar.   Also, comments on Tuesday evening from President Trump at the State of the Union address fueled trade uncertainty and weighed on the dollar when he reiterated his resolve to impose trade tariffs.  In addition, strength in stocks today has reduced liquidity demand for the dollar. Losses in the dollar are limited amid weakness in the yen, wh ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Tuesday rose by +0.16%.  The dollar moved higher on Tuesday amid weakness in the yen, which fell to a 2-week low against the dollar.  Also, Tuesday's better-than-expected US economic news of Dec S&P composite-20 home prices and Feb consumer confidence was supportive of the dollar. Gains in the dollar were muted on Tuesday due to the strength of the yuan, which rallied to a 2.75-year high against the dollar.   Also, US trade uncertainty may spur foreign investors to dump dollar ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday fell by -0.10%.  The dollar is under pressure today on concern that foreign investors may shy away from dollar assets after President Trump signed an executive order raising global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to 15% from 10% that he initially imposed after the Supreme Court last Friday struck down his global "reciprocal" tariffs. Losses in the dollar were limited after the Jan Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Feb Dallas Fed manufacturing ou ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's February 1-year inflation expectations were revised lower to 3.4%, a 13-month low, from 3.5% [2] - The February 5-10 year inflation expectations were also revised lower to 3.3% from 3.4% [2] - The US December new home sales fell by 1.7% to 645,000, better than the expected 730,000 [2] - The US February S&P manufacturing PMI fell by 1.2 to 51.2, weaker than the expected 52.4 [3] - The US Q4 GDP rose by 1.4% (q/q annualized), weaker than the expected 2.8% [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated that it is prudent to maintain mildly restrictive interest rates, anticipating upward pressure on inflation due to expected US growth in 2026 [1][4] - Swaps markets are pricing in a 5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18 [7] - The FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026, contrasting with the BOJ's expected rate hike [7] Group 3: Currency and Tariff Implications - The dollar fell to a low after the Supreme Court struck down President Trump's global tariffs, which will increase the US budget deficit [4] - President Trump announced plans to impose a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, alongside existing tariffs [6] - The dollar index fell by 0.13% due to weaker-than-expected US economic news [5] Group 4: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices rallied sharply, reaching one-week highs, driven by heightened geopolitical risks and the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs [12] - Strong central bank demand for gold was noted, with China's PBOC reserves increasing by 40,000 ounces to 74.19 million troy ounces [14] - Fund demand for precious metals remains strong, with long holdings in gold ETFs climbing to a 3.5-year high [16]

Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) increased by +0.26%, supported by better-than-expected US economic reports on December capital goods new orders, housing starts, and manufacturing production [1] - US December capital goods new orders (nondefense ex-aircraft and parts) rose by +0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of +0.3% [3] - US December housing starts rose by +6.2% month-over-month to a five-month high of 1.404 million, surpassing expectations of 1.304 million [3] - US December building permits increased by +4.2% month-over-month to a nine-month high of 1.448 million, also above expectations of 1.400 million [3] - US January manufacturing production rose by +0.6% month-over-month, stronger than the expected +0.4% and marking the largest increase in 11 months [4] Mortgage Applications - US MBA mortgage applications rose by +2.8% in the week ended February 13, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down by -2.7% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up by +7.1% [2] - The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell by -4 basis points to 6.17% from 6.21% in the prior week [2] Currency Movements - EUR/USD decreased by -0.32%, with the dollar's strength impacting the euro, particularly after reports of ECB President Christine Lagarde's potential early departure [5] - USD/JPY increased by +0.70%, as the yen weakened due to a rise in the Nikkei Stock Index and stronger dollar [6]

Currency Market Analysis - The dollar index rose to a 1-week high, finishing up by +0.25%, supported by weakness in the euro and British pound, which fell to 1-week lows [1] - Hawkish comments from Fed officials, particularly regarding elevated services inflation and the likelihood of holding interest rates steady, contributed to the dollar's strength [1][4] - The euro fell to a 1-week low, down by -0.03%, pressured by an unexpected decline in the German ZEW expectations of economic growth survey [5][6] Economic Indicators - The US February Empire manufacturing general business conditions survey fell by -0.6 to 7.1, a smaller decline than the expected 6.2 [2] - The US February NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell by -1 to a 5-month low of 36, weaker than expectations of an increase to 38 [3] - The German February ZEW expectations of economic growth survey unexpectedly fell by -1.3 to 58.3, weaker than expectations of an increase to 65.2 [6] Interest Rate Outlook - Fed officials indicated that it may be appropriate to hold interest rates steady for some time, with swaps markets discounting a 7% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next policy meeting [4] - The dollar is expected to face underlying weakness as the FOMC is projected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, while the BOJ is expected to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [5] - Divergent central bank policies are bullish for the yen, with expectations of a BOJ interest rate increase in April, contrasting with the Fed and ECB maintaining or cutting rates [7]