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Why This Analyst Thinks Uber Is Set For A Strong Q2
Benzingaยท 2025-08-04 16:31
Core Viewpoint - BoA Securities analyst Justin Post maintains a Buy rating on Uber Technologies Inc with a price target of $115, citing strong performance expectations ahead of the second-quarter earnings report [1] Financial Projections - The second-quarter gross bookings forecast has been raised to $47.1 billion, which is 2% above the consensus estimate of $46.4 billion. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA projections are set at $12.56 billion and $2.12 billion, respectively, both slightly above consensus [2] - Constant currency bookings growth is expected to be 19% year-over-year, ahead of the 18% consensus, driven by increased U.S. consumer spending and improved international results due to favorable foreign exchange conditions [2] Mobility Segment - In the Mobility segment, a 20% year-over-year constant currency growth is projected, consistent with first-quarter trends, supported by increasing transit spending [3] - Despite weak U.S. travel demand, a recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2025, which is expected to bolster future growth [3] - Uber's expanding autonomous vehicle ecosystem, including partnerships with Lucid Group, Nuro, Baidu, and Wayve, is gaining traction, particularly in Atlanta and Austin [3] Delivery Segment - For the Delivery segment, a 19% year-over-year growth is forecasted, slightly accelerating from the first quarter, attributed to strong adoption of Uber One and new perks launched in the second quarter [4] - The Advertising business is also showing strength, with a 60% year-over-year growth in the first quarter [4] - The upcoming acquisition of Trendyol GO in Turkey is expected to contribute to Delivery growth once finalized in the second half of 2025 [5] Future Outlook - Third-quarter bookings are projected to be in the range of $47.25 billion to $48.75 billion, indicating a 17% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, with EBITDA forecasted between $2.26 billion and $2.36 billion [5] - For the full year 2025, estimates have been raised to $190 billion in gross bookings, $51.1 billion in revenue, and $8.62 billion in EBITDA, all exceeding Street expectations [6] Valuation Perspective - Despite a 44% year-to-date stock gain, Uber's valuation remains attractive, trading at 17 times EV/EBITDA compared to its four-year average of 22 times and 18 times free cash flow, significantly lower than FANG peers at 43 times [7] - An expected bottom-line growth rate of 26% for 2026 is projected, compared to 19% for FANG, indicating potential for upside [7]