Core Insights - Uber Technologies Inc. has achieved profitability on both net income and free cash flow basis after years of operating losses [2] - The company operates in over 70 countries and benefits from strong network effects and diversified business lines, including Mobility, Delivery, and Freight [2] - Despite recent profitability, Uber faces challenges from competitive dynamics, regulatory risks, and ongoing capital requirements [2] DCF Analysis - The Discount Rate is set at 10% and the Terminal Growth Rate at 3% [3] - Forecasted Free Cash Flows (in billions) are projected as follows: - 2025: $7.5 → PV: $6.82 - 2026: $8.5 → PV: $7.02 - 2027: $9.5 → PV: $7.14 - 2028: $10.5 → PV: $7.20 - 2029: $11.5 → PV: $7.21 - Total Present Value of Free Cash Flows is $35.39 billion [3] - Terminal Value calculated using the perpetuity growth model is $169.07 billion, with a Present Value of Terminal Value at $106.09 billion [3] Enterprise and Equity Value - The Enterprise Value is calculated as $141.48 billion, combining the Total Present Value of Free Cash Flows and Present Value of Terminal Value [3] - Net Debt is reported as $4.15 billion, with Cash at $6.98 billion and Total Debt at $11.13 billion [4] - The Equity Value is $137.33 billion, leading to an Intrinsic Value per Share of $65.10 based on 2.11 billion shares outstanding [4] Conclusion - The DCF Value is estimated at $65.10, while the current market price is $92.95, indicating a Margin of Safety of -30% [5] - Although Uber has transitioned to consistent profitability and strong free cash flow generation, the stock is currently trading above the conservative intrinsic value estimate, suggesting limited upside potential [5]

Core Insights - Bill Ackman aims to replicate Warren Buffett's success with Howard Hughes Holdings, investing $1.4 billion initially and adding another $900 million, intending to create a "modern-day Berkshire Hathaway" by acquiring controlling interests in quality companies [2][3]. Group 1: Howard Hughes Holdings - Ackman's hedge fund, Pershing Square Capital, has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 30 percentage points over the last five years, positioning him as a potential successor to Buffett if he successfully diversifies Howard Hughes [3]. Group 2: Uber Technologies - Uber holds a 19% stake in Ackman's portfolio, being a leader in mobility and food delivery services, operating the largest ride-sharing platform and the second-largest restaurant delivery platform in the U.S. [6]. - Uber's scale allows for cross-promotion of services, with 30% of first delivery trips coming from mobility users and 22% of first mobility trips from delivery users [7]. - The company benefits from a strong network effect, enhancing platform value with each new driver and rider [7]. - Uber collects extensive data to improve service efficiency and has developed a growing advertising business based on consumer delivery habits [8]. - The company is positioned to capitalize on the autonomous driving market, with CEO Dara Khosrowshahi estimating a trillion-dollar opportunity in the U.S. [9]. - Recent partnerships with WeRide and Alphabet's Waymo aim to expand robotaxi services to multiple cities, including Abu Dhabi and Dubai [10]. - Uber anticipates a 32% increase in adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter, with similar growth expected through 2026, making its current valuation of 16 times earnings attractive for investors [11]. Group 3: Alphabet Inc. - Alphabet, holding 14% of Ackman's portfolio, is the largest ad tech company, leveraging platforms like Google Search and YouTube to engage users and gather data [12]. - The company is adapting to the shift towards AI tools, with its own generative AI initiatives to counter competition from emerging players [12]. - Alphabet's Google Cloud accounts for 12% of total CIPS spending, showing a slight year-over-year increase, and is well-positioned in the growing AI infrastructure market [13]. - The company faces two antitrust lawsuits that could lead to asset divestitures, although analysts believe a breakup is unlikely [14]. - Earnings for Alphabet are projected to grow at 7% annually through 2026, with a current valuation of 18 times earnings appearing reasonable given its historical outperformance [15]. - The ad tech and cloud services markets are expected to grow at 14% and 20% annually through 2030, respectively, with Alphabet gaining share in cloud services despite losing some in digital advertising [16].