AeroVironment (AVAV) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended January 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock ...

Core Viewpoint - AeroVironment (AVAV) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive trend in earnings estimates which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system is based on the consensus measure of EPS estimates from sell-side analysts, reflecting the changing earnings picture that impacts stock prices [1][2]. - Changes in a company's future earnings potential, as shown by earnings estimate revisions, are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements, particularly due to institutional investors' reliance on these estimates for valuation [4]. AeroVironment's Earnings Outlook - The upgrade for AeroVironment signifies an improvement in the company's underlying business, which is expected to positively influence its stock price [5]. - Analysts have raised their earnings estimates for AeroVironment, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 13.3% over the past three months, projecting earnings of $3.62 per share for the fiscal year ending April 2026, indicating no year-over-year change [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a strong historical performance, particularly for Zacks Rank 1 stocks which have generated an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - The upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places AeroVironment in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting a strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for AeroVironment (AVAV) due to higher revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The earnings report is expected on December 9, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.85, reflecting an 80.9% increase year-over-year. Revenues are projected at $477.43 million, up 153.3% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 1.59% over the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading can indicate the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more predictive [9][10]. Current Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank - AeroVironment has a negative Earnings ESP of -9.20%, indicating bearish sentiment among analysts. The stock holds a Zacks Rank of 3, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, AeroVironment's actual earnings of $0.32 per share fell short of the expected $0.34, resulting in a surprise of -5.88%. Over the last four quarters, the company has only beaten consensus EPS estimates once [13][14]. Conclusion - AeroVironment does not appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, and investors should consider additional factors when making decisions regarding the stock ahead of the earnings release [17].