Core Viewpoint - State-backed China Vanke is expected to follow the trend of other financially troubled Chinese developers by seeking multiple short-term extensions for its bond repayments before proposing a debt restructuring [1] Group 1: Bond Repayment Strategies - Vanke surprised the market by seeking a public bond extension for its 2 billion yuan ($284 million) note due December 15 by one year, despite receiving a 22 billion yuan loan from major shareholder Shenzhen Metro this year [2] - The initial effort to extend the bond repayment failed, but Vanke narrowly avoided default by getting bondholders to approve a plan to extend the grace period from five to 30 trading days [3] - The grace period extension plan achieved a 90.7% approval rate, while a sweeter proposal to delay principal payments was rejected with 78.3% opposing it [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The high rejection rate indicates bondholders were dissatisfied with the lack of upfront cash payments and principal amortization, reflecting concerns based on previous cases of developers extending repayments [5] - Analysts expect similar voting results for Vanke's 3.7 billion yuan onshore note due December 28, where the developer is also seeking to delay payments and extend the grace period [6] - A Shanghai-based investor anticipates that Vanke will default eventually, suggesting that credit enhancements will not be effective, similar to other developers like Sunac [7] Group 3: Industry Context - Since 2021, China's highly indebted developers have faced a liquidity crisis, leading to restructuring efforts for offshore bonds starting in 2022, while onshore bonds have seen repeated maturity extensions without a recovery in cash flow [9]