Core Viewpoint - Venezuelan bonds are expected to appreciate following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, indicating a potential shift in the political landscape and the possibility of debt restructuring [1] Group 1: Political Developments - The capture of President Nicolás Maduro sets the stage for a potential regime change in Venezuela [1] - This political shift may lead to improved conditions for Venezuelan bonds, as investors anticipate changes in governance [1] Group 2: Debt Restructuring - The prospect of debt restructuring could further enhance the value of Venezuelan bonds [1] - However, resolving Venezuelan debt is likely to be complex due to the country's existing obligations, which include defaulted bonds, loans, and legal judgments owed to various creditors [1]

Group 1 - Venezuelan bonds are expected to appreciate following the capture of Nicolás Maduro, with investors optimistic about a potential regime change impacting $60 billion in securities [1] - Defaulted notes from the Venezuelan government and state-run oil company PDVSA have seen significant price increases, now trading between 23 and 33 cents on the dollar, with potential recovery prices projected at 50-60 cents [2] - The market is currently more focused on political developments rather than long-term fundamentals, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards the bonds, which were previously trading at very low values [3] Group 2 - The removal of Maduro has been achieved, but the future trajectory will depend on the nature of the regime change and the role of the US in the transition process [4] - Investors are actively purchasing Venezuelan bonds amid increased military pressure from the US, which has raised concerns about Maduro's ability to maintain power [5] - The potential for the US to manage Venezuela's transition and maximize oil output could lead to significant financial benefits for the country and its debt situation [6]