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This may be the best way to play energy stocks if oil stays above $80 a barrel
Yahoo Finance· 2026-03-11 12:19
Core Viewpoint - A focus on free cash flow (FCF) could be lucrative for investors if oil prices remain moderately higher than they were in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Since February 27, oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations, initially spiking and then reversing, but current levels support a notable increase in free cash flow for oil and natural gas companies [3] - The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil settled at $67.02 per barrel on February 27, spiked to $119.48, and settled at $83.45 on the following Tuesday, with an increase to $86.30 early Wednesday [4] Group 2: Free Cash Flow Insights - Analysts from William Blair noted that a $15 change in oil prices can more than double the FCF yield for a group of 17 small-cap and mid-cap U.S. companies involved in oil and natural gas production or distribution [5] - The average daily settlement price for WTI in 2025 was $64.75, while it has averaged $65.08 this year, indicating that a price of $80 per barrel supports the analysts' thesis [6] Group 3: Importance of Free Cash Flow Yield - The ability of WTI to remain above $80 is crucial, as FCF yield represents the cash flow remaining after capital expenditures, which can be used for dividends, share buybacks, or corporate expansion [7] - A comparison of a company's FCF yield with its dividend yield can indicate the potential for deploying additional cash [8]