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小米集团- 电动汽车交付量上周突破约 1.2 万辆;产能扩张执行稳健;买入
2025-09-03 01:22
Summary of Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) - **Industry**: Electric Vehicles (EV) and Consumer Electronics Key Points Delivery Performance - Xiaomi's EV insurance registrations reached **11,900 units** for the week ending August 31, representing a **44% week-over-week increase** and breaking previous averages of **6.5-7.5k** weekly deliveries since March 2025 [1][2] - The average expected waiting time for the Xiaomi YU7 series has decreased from **51 weeks** in early August to **47 weeks** currently, indicating improved delivery efficiency [1][2] Capacity Expansion - The company is executing on capacity expansion, with the Phase II-1 of the EV factory in Beijing likely having commenced mass production, which is anticipated by both investors and consumers [2][3] - Plans to expand EV sales stores to **402 locations** across **119 cities** in China by the end of September [1][12] Future Projections - If the delivery run rate in September remains stable or increases, total deliveries for Q3 2025 could reach **97-99k**, aligning with management's guidance of **350k deliveries** for 2025 [2] - The delivery mix is shifting towards the YU7 series, which is expected to balance out with the SU7 series, leading to a more favorable average selling price (ASP) mix for the EV segment in Q3 and Q4 2025 [2] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include the release of the flagship Xiaomi 16 series and HyperOS 3.0 by the end of September, which may shorten the time lag compared to the iPhone launch [3] - Monitoring of EV manufacturing capacity ramp-up, Singles' Day gross merchandise volume (GMV), and filing of new EV models with MIIT is advised [3] Investment Rating - The company is rated as a **Buy** with a 12-month target price of **HK$65**, indicating a potential upside of **20.4%** from the current price of **HK$54** [4][17] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include intensified competition in the smartphone and EV markets, potential pressure on gross profit margins, execution risks related to brand premiumization, geopolitical risks, and macroeconomic conditions affecting demand [14] Long-term Outlook - Xiaomi is positioned for long-term growth with a robust balance sheet and strong integration capabilities across software, hardware, and vehicle sectors, aiming to build a significant consumer physical intelligence ecosystem [13] Additional Insights - The company is the **world's 3 smartphone brand**, holding **13.8%** of 2024 shipments, and is recognized for its leading position in the consumer AIoT/NEV platform [13] - The investment thesis highlights Xiaomi's multi-year ecosystem expansion strategy, projecting **26% revenue and 36% EPS CAGRs** from 2024 to 2027 [13]