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From Comps to Coffee Costs: What Will Define SBUX's FY26 Trajectory?
ZACKS· 2025-11-13 16:55
Core Insights - Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) shows early signs of stabilization entering fiscal 2026, with its future dependent on sustaining comparable sales momentum and managing ongoing inflationary pressures, particularly in coffee costs [1][10] Financial Performance - The company concluded fiscal 2025 with its first positive global comparable sales growth in seven quarters, attributed to improved U.S. traffic trends and strong international performance, including growth in China [2] - Starbucks anticipates continued comparable sales growth throughout fiscal 2026, although management acknowledges that recovery may not be linear [4] Operational Strategy - A significant factor in Starbucks' performance will be the implementation of the Green Apron Service, which focuses on staffing, speed, and customer connection, showing early positive results in U.S. stores [3] - The company is enhancing service execution, particularly during morning hours, and plans to introduce new menu items to support transaction growth and premium offerings [4] Cost Management - Persistent coffee inflation and tariffs are expected to pressure margins, with elevated coffee prices likely affecting profitability through at least the first half of fiscal 2026 [5] - Starbucks is restructuring general and administrative costs and improving unit economics by closing underperforming stores, although earnings may lag behind revenue growth due to labor investments [5] Competitive Landscape - Competition from McDonald's (MCD) and Dutch Bros (BROS) is significant as Starbucks seeks to strengthen its comparable sales and manage coffee cost inflation [7] - McDonald's McCafé platform is gaining popularity among value-seeking consumers, while Dutch Bros is rapidly expanding in the specialty beverage market, posing challenges to Starbucks [8] Valuation Metrics - Starbucks shares have increased by 0.9% over the past six months, contrasting with a 9.7% decline in the industry [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 2.54, which is below the industry average of 3.39 [13] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Starbucks' fiscal 2026 and 2027 earnings per share (EPS) suggests year-over-year gains of 16.9% and 23.6%, respectively, although EPS estimates have declined in the past 30 days [15]