Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant price drop of over 10% to around $60,000 before rebounding to approximately $70,000, raising questions about whether this decline marked a capitulation phase for holders [1] - The futures market indicates that there may be further downside potential, as suggested by Amberdata's director of derivatives, Greg Magadini, who noted a lack of confidence in a true capitulation moment [2][6] Futures Market Dynamics - Futures are standardized contracts that allow traders to buy or sell an underlying asset, such as bitcoin, at a predetermined price on a future date, enabling speculation on price movements without owning the asset [3] - The price difference, or basis, between futures and spot markets reflects market sentiment; a significant premium indicates bullish optimism, while a discount suggests bearish pressure [4] Historical Context - Historically, bitcoin bear markets have seen futures trading at substantial discounts to spot prices during capitulation phases, marking the end of bearish trends [5] - Currently, the 90-day basis for bitcoin futures remains around 4%, which is consistent with risk-free treasury yields, contrasting sharply with the end of the 2022 bear market when futures traded at a 9% discount [6]

Core Insights - The decline in Bitcoin futures is attributed to deleveraging activities, indicating a significant reduction in leveraged positions within the market [1] - On a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin appears to be cheaper than gold, suggesting a potential investment opportunity in the cryptocurrency sector [1] Group 1 - Deleveraging in Bitcoin futures has led to a notable decline in its value [1] - Bitcoin's current pricing, when adjusted for volatility, shows it is more affordable compared to gold [1]

cme bitcoin futures basis at 1.98%, lowest since mid-2023. below 2% marked the exact top in may 2021 before 50% correction. blackrock ibit saw first major outflow at $149.3m yesterday after 10 months straight inflows. us institutions distributing into offshore and defi rotation. basis below 3% means no arbitrage profits left, no reason to hold futures over spot. last time this happened btc dropped to 0.618 fib within 8 weeks. ...