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Stride Crashes 50%, Should You Buy More?
Forbesยท 2025-10-30 13:30
Core Insights - Stride (LRN) stock plummeted by 54.4% in a single day despite reporting better-than-expected Q1 earnings, as investors reacted negatively to the company's weak outlook and operational challenges [2] - The adjusted EPS was $1.52, with a revenue increase of 12.7% to $620.9 million, surpassing estimates; however, management's guidance for future sales fell short of Wall Street expectations, raising concerns about growth momentum [2] - The company highlighted issues with technology rollouts and increased student withdrawal rates, indicating execution challenges that could hinder future growth [2] Financial Performance - Stride is currently valued at $3.0 billion with $2.5 billion in revenue, trading at $70.05 [7] - The company has experienced a revenue growth of 17.3% over the past 12 months, with an operating margin of 17.8% [7] - Stride's stock is trading at a P/E multiple of 9.6 and a P/EBIT multiple of 7.2 [7] Historical Stock Performance - LRN stock has shown a median return of -2.4% within a year following sharp declines since 2010 [7] - The stock dropped 32.8% from a peak of $46.56 on October 21, 2022, to $31.28 on December 30, 2022, while the S&P 500 experienced a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% [8] - Despite these declines, LRN stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by October 25, 2023, and reached a peak of $169.81 on August 27, 2025, before currently trading at $70.05 [8] Risk and Recovery Analysis - The stock has historically faced challenges in recovery after significant declines, with a notable drop of 59.2% from a high of $51.60 on August 5, 2020, to $21.05 on November 10, 2020, compared to a 33.9% decline for the S&P 500 [10] - LRN stock has consistently recovered to its pre-Crisis peaks after major downturns, indicating resilience in its long-term performance [10]