Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are rising due to the escalating U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which raises concerns about supply disruptions from the Middle East [1][3]. Oil Price Movements - Brent crude futures increased to $78.83 per barrel, up $1.10 or 1.4%, with a previous high of $82.37, marking a 6.7% increase [2]. - U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 74 cents or 1% to $71.97 per barrel, with a previous session high since June 2025, settling up 6.3% [3]. Geopolitical Context - The conflict has widened, with Israel conducting airstrikes in Lebanon and Iran targeting energy infrastructure in Gulf countries and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - The Strait of Hormuz is critical, with about 20% of global oil demand transiting through it, alongside significant liquefied natural gas shipments [5]. Shipping and Insurance Concerns - Tankers are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz due to increased insurance cancellations, with Iranian officials claiming the waterway is closed to shipping [6]. - An incident involving a Honduran-flagged fuel tanker being attacked by drones highlights the risks in the region [7]. Market Predictions - Analysts expect elevated oil prices in the coming days, with Bernstein raising its 2026 Brent oil price forecast from $65 to $80 per barrel, and predicting potential prices of $120-$150 in a prolonged conflict scenario [7]. Refined Product Futures - Refined product futures are also rising, with Saudi Arabia shutting down its largest domestic oil refinery following a drone strike [8]. - U.S. ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures increased by 3.1% to $2.991, while gasoline futures rose by 1.1% after a previous climb of 3.7% [8].