Core Insights - Bitcoin has underperformed compared to gold, with gold rising 60% this year to over $4,350 per ounce, while Bitcoin is up only 15% in 2025 and has recently fallen 10% [1][2] - Market analysts suggest that gold's rise may indicate a future upward trend for Bitcoin, as both assets are influenced by institutional buying patterns [2][3] - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases since 2022, doubling their annual buying from approximately 467 metric tons to around 1,000 metric tons [5] - Bitcoin lacks the same level of institutional buying power, with no central bank purchases reported yet, despite Bitcoin ETFs consuming over 6% of total supply [6] Central Banks and Buying Patterns - Central banks began aggressively purchasing gold following geopolitical tensions, particularly after the US seized Russian holdings in 2022 [5] - Gold's price did not immediately surge despite increased demand; it experienced gradual increases before a significant jump this year [7] - The theory posits that price-sensitive investors sold into rising demand, which eventually led to an exhaustion of sellers and a subsequent price explosion for gold [7] Future Projections for Bitcoin - Predictions for Bitcoin's price vary, with some analysts forecasting it could reach $200,000, while others are more conservative, suggesting it may struggle to exceed $140,000 by year-end [4]