Economic Impact of Winter Storm Fern - Winter Storm Fern is projected to cause a temporary decline in U.S. economic growth, with Bank of America estimating a 0.5–1.5 percentage point drag on Q1 2026 GDP, similar to the impact of Winter Storm Viola in 2021 [1] - The storm's disruption is seen as a delay in economic activity rather than a permanent demand destruction, which is crucial for investors to understand [1] Consumer Spending and Resilience - Bank of America's card data indicates that consumer spending rose by 3.3% year over year in mid-January, showing strength in groceries and lodging, suggesting that the storm interrupted ongoing activity rather than revealing underlying demand weakness [3] - Consumer Staples ETFs, such as the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLP), are expected to perform well during uncertain periods due to their focus on essential goods [3][4] Travel and Cyclical Sectors - The travel and cyclical sectors are facing immediate challenges, with over 13,000 flights canceled and 70% of the U.S. population under winter weather alerts, impacting ETFs related to travel and discretionary spending [5] - Historical data shows that similar disruptions in 2021 were followed by significant rebounds in these sectors as mobility recovered [5][6] Potential for Q2 Growth - The first quarter's economic data is expected to be noisy due to seasonal effects, and Winter Storm Fern may exaggerate Q1 weakness while masking potential upside risks for Q2 growth [8] - Bank of America suggests that there is as much potential for Q2 GDP growth as there is downside for Q1, indicating a timing reshuffle rather than a structural slowdown [8] ETF Investment Considerations - Investors in ETFs should be cautious not to confuse weather-driven volatility with a structural slowdown, as growth may rebound in the spring, benefiting cyclical and mobility-linked ETFs [9] - Consumer Discretionary Sector ETFs, such as iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF (NYSE:IYC), are positioned to bounce back strongly if consumer pullback is temporary, driven by pent-up demand [7]

Group 1 - Amazon.com, Inc. was named as a final trade by Ritholtz Wealth Management's CEO, with a Buy rating maintained by Jefferies analyst and a price target increase from $275 to $300 [1] - Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. was selected as a final trade by Humilis Investment Strategies' CEO, supported by Goldman Sachs analyst maintaining a Buy rating and raising the price target from $300 to $341 [2] - iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF was highlighted by NB Private Wealth's CIO, indicating positive consumer engagement as tariffs are no longer a concern [2] Group 2 - Uber Technologies, Inc. was chosen by Virtus Investment Partners' senior managing director, with shares gaining on the day [3] - Uber announced a renewal of its partnership with TomTom to enhance routing and location services for its operations [3] - Amazon shares rose 3.4% to close at $240.93, Affiliated Managers Group shares increased by 2.2% to $310.31, Uber shares surged around 6% to $85.54, and iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF gained 0.9% [4]

Company Insights - Ascendis Pharma A/S's New Drug Application (NDA) for TransCon CNP has had its review period extended by the FDA, with the new target action date set for February 28, 2026, due to a major amendment submitted on November 5 [2] - Ascendis Pharma's stock rose by 0.8% to close at $207.12 on Monday [6] Industry Trends - The consumer discretionary sector is showing signs of optimism, with growth expectations for the next year, as indicated by the selection of iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF by NB Private Wealth [3] - Monolithic Power Systems Inc reported better-than-expected third-quarter results, with earnings of $4.73 per share surpassing the consensus estimate of $4.64, and sales of $737.176 million exceeding the estimate of $722.252 million [5] - Monolithic Power's shares gained 2.1% to close at $983.58 on Monday [6] Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley analyst Terence Flynn maintained an Overweight rating on Vertex and raised the price target from $516 to $564 [4]

Group 1 - The article provides a top-down analysis of the consumer discretionary sector, focusing on industry metrics related to value, quality, and momentum [1] - It aims to assist in analyzing sector ETFs, such as the iShares US Consumer Discretionary ETF [1] - The analysis is part of a monthly series that may highlight potential investment opportunities within the sector [1] Group 2 - The author, Fred Piard, has over 30 years of experience in technology and has been investing in data-driven systematic strategies since 2010 [1] - Fred runs an investing group that shares a portfolio invested in quality dividend stocks and companies at the forefront of tech innovation [1] - The author also provides market risk indicators and various investment strategies, including real estate, bonds, and closed-end funds [1]