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Rheinmetall falls on earnings miss but Ukraine, Iran wars boost sales outlook
Invezz· 2026-03-11 11:01
Core Viewpoint - Rheinmetall's strong revenue growth and record operating profit for 2025 were overshadowed by an earnings miss, leading to a decline in share price despite a positive sales outlook driven by geopolitical tensions [1] Financial Performance - Rheinmetall reported a 29% year-on-year increase in sales, reaching 9.935 billion euros, but fell short of market expectations of approximately 10.12 billion euros [1][1] - Operating profit rose to 1.84 billion euros from 1.4 billion euros the previous year, with an operating margin improvement to 18.5%, yet it did not meet the forecast of 1.92 billion euros [1][1] - Net profit decreased slightly to 696 million euros from 717 million euros, significantly below the expected 1.15 billion euros [1][1] Order Backlog - The order backlog reached a record 63.8 billion euros, a 36% increase from the previous year, indicating strong demand for defense equipment [1][1] - Rheinmetall proposed a dividend of 11.50 euros per share for 2025, up from 8.10 euros the prior year, reflecting confidence in future earnings [1][1] Strategic Shift - The company is restructuring to focus entirely on defense, putting its civilian automotive operations up for sale to capitalize on increased defense spending [1][1] - Rheinmetall aims to provide systems across land, air, space, and naval domains, positioning itself as a key supplier to Western militaries [1][1] Sales Outlook - For 2026, Rheinmetall forecasts sales growth of 40% to 45%, projecting revenue between 14 billion and 14.5 billion euros, with an expected operating profit margin increase to around 19% [1][1] - The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran are driving demand for military equipment, particularly drones and air-defense systems [1][1] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts express optimism regarding Rheinmetall's guidance for 2026, indicating that the company's growth trajectory remains intact [1][1] - Bernstein analysts noted that reaching the upper end of the 2026 revenue forecast would imply a compound annual growth rate of around 34% to 2030, outpacing other major European defense contractors [1][1] - Berenberg analysts highlighted strong demand for air defense systems, supporting the medium-term outlook despite slightly weaker operating profit guidance [1][1]