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How Should an Investor Play LUNR Stock Pre-Q1 Earnings Release?
ZACKS· 2025-05-12 13:51
Core Viewpoint - Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) is expected to report a decline in first-quarter revenues while showing improvement in its bottom line compared to the previous year, despite recent setbacks in its lunar missions [2][5][6]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is $59.4 million, reflecting an 18.7% decline from the same quarter last year [2]. - The consensus estimate for the bottom line is a loss of $0.10 per share, which is an improvement from a loss of $0.21 per share reported in the prior-year quarter [2]. - The bottom-line estimate has deteriorated from a loss of $0.05 per share in the past 60 days [2]. Earnings Surprise History - LUNR has a mixed earnings surprise history, outperforming the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three out of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 69.92% [2][3]. Recent Developments - The company has experienced a setback with its second lunar mission, IM-2, which tipped over upon landing, likely impacting first-quarter results negatively [6]. - Increased selling, general, and administrative expenses due to public company costs and employee benefits are expected to negatively affect earnings performance [7]. - A recent contract awarded by NASA for lunar logistics is anticipated to boost the company's order book and backlog count [8]. Stock Performance - LUNR's shares have increased by 52.3% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Aerospace-Defense industry's growth of 7.3% and the broader sector's growth of 11.8% [9]. - The stock's forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 5.24X, significantly higher than the industry average of 2.02X, indicating a premium valuation [11]. Industry Context - The market for space exploration is experiencing solid growth, driven by investments from private companies and governments, which is beneficial for companies like LUNR [15]. - LUNR is developing its largest lander, Nova-M, which is expected to generate substantial revenues upon launch [15]. Investment Considerations - Despite the company's strong stock performance, there are concerns regarding its ability to meet earnings expectations for the first quarter, given the unfavorable earnings ESP and recent downward revisions in estimates [17].