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SANY International:三一国际(00631): Early stage of earnings recovery + attractive valuation offer good entry point-20250609
招银证券· 2025-06-09 02:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for SANY International, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [1][26]. Core Views - SANY International is expected to return to a growth trajectory in 2025, driven by stabilized demand for road headers, strong growth in large-size port equipment, and better-than-expected domestic mining truck sales, which will offset weak sales of combined coal mining units [1]. - The emerging business segments are projected to incur manageable losses of approximately RMB 200-250 million in 2025, alleviating market concerns [1]. - The target price has been revised up to HK$8.70, reflecting a 40.8% upside from the current price of HK$6.18, with an unchanged multiple of 11x 2025E P/E [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 20,278 million in FY23A to RMB 25,396 million in FY25E, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.9% [2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,929 million in FY23A to RMB 2,243.8 million in FY25E, with a year-on-year growth of 21.3% [2]. - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 9.3x in FY23A to 8.1x in FY25E, indicating an attractive valuation [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from road headers is expected to increase by 5.0% in 2025E, while large-size port machinery revenue is projected to surge by 20.0% [17]. - Domestic wide-body truck sales are anticipated to grow significantly, with a 36% year-on-year increase expected in 1Q25 [9]. - Large port machinery revenue surged 74% year-on-year in 1Q25, with expectations for further acceleration in 2Q25 [9]. Share Performance - The stock has shown a 26.9% increase over the past three months and a 27.2% increase over the past six months [5]. - The current market capitalization is approximately HK$19.86 billion, with an average turnover of HK$34.8 million over the last three months [3]. Shareholding Structure - Sany Heavy Equipment holds a 66.4% stake in SANY International, with a free float of 33.9% [4].