Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures market is a key benchmark for global grain pricing, with May wheat futures influencing cash markets globally, yet prices have remained in a sideways range over the past couple of years [1] Price Trends - From 2024 into early 2026, wheat futures have fluctuated between approximately $7.20 and $4.92, with a significant rally in early 2024 due to weather-related supply concerns, followed by a softening as global harvests kept inventories high [2] - The USDA projects global wheat production and ending stocks for the 2025/26 season at 274.9 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 14.8 MMT year over year, contributing to a lack of urgency for price rallies [3] Seasonal Patterns - Weather risks in the U.S. Plains or Black Sea region can create "weather markets" that drive price rallies in spring/early summer, with April/May often seen as peak periods due to concerns about new crops [4] - Despite seasonal trends, counter-seasonal moves can occur when fundamental factors change, such as weather volatility or geopolitical shocks, which have led to technical reversals within the broader price range [5]