Industry Overview - Consumer discretionary businesses are sensitive to economic cycles, with recent performance indicating a potential slowdown in demand as discretionary stocks returned 14.8% over the past six months, underperforming the S&P 500 by 4.6 percentage points [1] Companies to Avoid - **Pool (POOL)** - Market Cap: $9.25 billion - Trading at $249.98 per share, equivalent to 21.7x forward P/E [3][5] - **Lovesac (LOVE)** - Market Cap: $191.5 million - Trading at $13.11 per share, equivalent to 50.4x forward P/E [6][8] Company to Watch - **Royal Caribbean (RCL)** - Market Cap: $69.15 billion - Established in 1968, known for innovative cruise experiences [9] - Absence of organic revenue growth over the past two years suggests reliance on acquisitions for expansion [11] - Anticipated sales growth of 3.1% for the next year indicates shaky demand [11] - Poor free cash flow margin of 0.6% over the last two years limits investment flexibility [12] - Impressive 30% annual revenue growth over the last five years indicates market share gains [13] - Expected increase in free cash flow margin by 11.3 percentage points next year suggests more capital for investment or shareholder returns [13]

Core Insights - Pool Corporation (NASDAQ:POOL) is a prominent distributor in the swimming pool supplies and equipment sector, catering to both residential and commercial clients, and competes with companies like Leslie's and Hayward Holdings [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Pool Corp. reported earnings of $3.39 per share, slightly exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.38 per share, marking a year-over-year increase from $3.26 per share, resulting in a +0.30% earnings surprise [3] - The company generated $1.45 billion in revenue for the quarter, marginally surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.14%, and showing a slight increase from $1.43 billion in the same quarter last year [4] Stock Performance - Pool Corp.'s stock price recently increased by $2.72, reflecting a 0.91% rise, with a trading range between $290.23 and $303.05, and a market capitalization of approximately $11.2 billion [5] - Goldman Sachs has set a price target of $360 for Pool Corp., indicating a potential price increase of approximately 19.88% from its current price of $300.31 [2][6]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first quarter of negative growth since Q1 2022 and missing analysts' expectations of 0.4% growth [3] - Consumer confidence fell by 7.9 points to 86 in April, reaching a five-year low, indicating a lack of investor confidence in the economy [6] Trade and Tariffs - Concerns are rising that President Trump's tariffs could negatively impact economic health, despite a temporary 90-day pause on tariffs that led to a 41.3% increase in imports for the quarter, while exports only grew by 1.8% [4][6] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending has slowed as individuals are saving more in anticipation of tougher economic conditions, alongside a significant decline in federal expenditures contributing to sluggish GDP figures [5] Dividend-Paying Stocks - In light of economic uncertainty, investing in dividend-paying stocks is recommended as they tend to provide steady income and stability [2][7] - Atkore Inc. (ATKR) announced a dividend of $0.33 per share with a dividend yield of 2%, having increased its dividend once in the past five years with a payout ratio of 12% [9][8] - Enact Holdings, Inc. (ACT) declared a dividend of $0.21 per share and has a dividend yield of 2.07%, having increased its dividend six times in the past five years with a payout ratio of 16% [11][10] - Pool Corporation (POOL) announced a dividend of $1.25 per share with a dividend yield of 1.64%, having increased its dividend six times in the past five years and a payout ratio of 46% [13][12] - American Water Works Company, Inc. (AWK) declared a dividend of $0.83 per share with a dividend yield of 2.08%, having increased its dividend six times in the past five years and a payout ratio of 57% [15][14]

Financial Performance - Pool Corp. reported quarterly earnings of $1.32 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.42 per share, and down from $1.85 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -7.04% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.07 billion for the quarter, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.03%, and down from $1.12 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Pool Corp. has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] Stock Performance - Pool Corp. shares have lost about 9.3% since the beginning of the year, compared to the S&P 500's decline of -8.6% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Pool Corp. is 4 (Sell), indicating expected underperformance in the near future [6] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $5.15 on revenues of $1.78 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $11.27 on revenues of $5.36 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Pool Corp. is currently unfavorable, which may change following the recent earnings report [6] Industry Context - The Leisure and Recreation Products industry, to which Pool Corp. belongs, is currently in the bottom 27% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that industry outlook can significantly impact stock performance [5][8]