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Can Chewy Maintain Its Momentum in Active Customer Growth?
ZACKSยท 2025-07-01 14:25
Core Insights - Chewy (CHWY) experienced significant growth in active customers, reaching 20.8 million, a 3.8% year-over-year increase, with an addition of approximately 240,000 customers sequentially [1][11] - The company demonstrated improved customer retention and acquisition strategies, evidenced by a reduction in churn and higher reorder rates [2][3] Customer Growth and Retention - Chewy's active customer growth was supported by robust gross customer additions and a meaningful reduction in churn, indicating effective retention strategies [2] - The quality of new customer cohorts improved, leading to higher reorder rates and increased spending levels [3] Financial Performance - Net sales for the fiscal first quarter rose 8.3% year-over-year to $3.12 billion, driven by the expansion of Autoship subscriptions, healthcare services, and the Chewy+ membership program [3][4] - Net Sales Per Active Customer increased by 3.7% year-over-year to $583, indicating stronger customer engagement [4] Future Outlook - Chewy expects low-single-digit active customer growth for fiscal 2025, with current trends suggesting a potential for higher growth within that range [5] - The company maintained its full-year revenue guidance between $12.3 billion and $12.45 billion, implying a 6-7% year-over-year growth [5] Competitive Positioning - Chewy's net sales growth outperformed key competitors such as Central Garden & Pet Company (CENT) and Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc. (WOOF) [6] - Central Garden & Pet reported a 7.4% year-over-year decline in net sales, while Petco experienced a 2.3% decline due to store closures [7][8] Stock Performance and Valuation - Chewy's shares have gained 27.3% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 7.7% [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 1.38X, below the industry average of 2.02X, indicating potential value [12] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chewy's fiscal 2025 earnings implies a year-over-year growth of 10.3%, with a 7.3% increase expected for fiscal 2026 [13]