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金风科技 - 2025 年上半年风机业务业绩亮眼,大幅超出预期
2025-08-26 13:23
Summary of Goldwind Science & Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (Goldwind) - **Industry**: Wind Energy - **Market Position**: Leading manufacturer of wind turbine generators (WTG) in China, established in 1998, listed on Shenzhen and Hong Kong Stock Exchanges Key Financial Highlights - **Recurring Net Profit Growth**: Achieved a 156% year-over-year (YoY) growth in recurring net profit to Rmb1.0 billion in H125 from Rmb402 million in H124, indicating a 140% YoY growth in Q225 to Rmb510 million from Rmb212 million in Q224 [2][3] - **Turbine Sales Volume**: Reached 10.6 GW in H125, up 107% from 5.2 GW in H124 [3] - **Gross Margin Improvement**: Overall wind turbine gross margin improved to 8% in H125 from 3.8% in H124, with domestic margins recovering to 1.3% from -4.2% in H124 [3] - **Overseas Revenue**: Revenue from overseas markets in 1H25 was Rmb8.4 billion, a 75% YoY increase, contributing 29% to total revenue compared to 24% in 1H24 [3] - **Order Backlog**: Turbine order backlog stood at 51.8 GW as of H125, up 46% YoY, with overseas orders accounting for 7.4 GW, up 42% YoY [4] Market Outlook - **Investor Sentiment**: Anticipated positive market reaction due to strong performance in the core turbine business, particularly driven by exports and volume growth [6] - **Price Target**: UBS has set a 12-month price target of Rmb13.00, with a current price of Rmb10.56 as of 22 August 2025 [7][27] - **Rating**: The stock is rated as "Buy" [7] Risks and Opportunities - **Downside Risks**: Include potential increases in WTG manufacturer unit costs, government restrictions on wind power capacity additions, and higher financing costs [12] - **Upside Risks**: Include potential increases in turbine average selling price (ASP), government upgrades to wind power addition targets, and lower financing costs [13] Analyst Insights - **Catalysts**: Positive catalysts expected from accelerating export turbine growth and recovery in domestic offshore wind project buildout [15] - **Earnings Forecast**: Analysts expect the next earnings update to likely lead to a positive surprise compared to consensus expectations [15] Additional Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb44.6 billion (approximately US$6.21 billion) [7] - **Debt Metrics**: Net debt to EBITDA projected at 3.8x for 12/25E [7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS of Rmb0.82 for 12/25E, increasing to Rmb1.33 by 12/27E [9] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the financial performance, market outlook, risks, and opportunities for Goldwind Science & Technology.